Ah, the agony and tragedy which has befallen California, the golden state.

High speed rail blues have set in with the heavy thud of reality.

New cost projections and business plan have been unveiled, much to wailing and gnashing of teeth over the new projected costs.

When California voters, being California voters who often believe money grows on trees, approved a high speed rail project in a statewide referendum in 2008, just before the full impact of the Great Recession was being felt, the price tag was $33 billion.

Hey! Many people said, the feds are going to pay for a big chunk of this, and we all know that’s not real money out of our pockets, so let’s have a new, shiny, high speed rail system!

Oops! The new estimate – and, it’s still only an estimate, just like the initial projections of Boston’s infamous Big Dig were – is now $98 billion, triple the initial estimate.

That’s all before the first shovel of dirt has been turned, and none of the lawsuits against the project trying to stop it or reroute it away from various NIMBYs are settled.

So, the California public seems to be wisely turning against this turkey and are having second thoughts. Just about every newspaper in California except the Los Angeles Times and the San Francisco Chronicle are editorializing against proceeding, wisely so.

Ken Orski, in his usual good work, has a full essay on the subject in his always informative Innovation NewsBriefs, Volume 22, Number 31, dated November 13, 2011. You can access all of Mr. Orski’s work at http://www.innobriefs.com to read more. Keep in mind, once you start reading his work, you will want to follow every word.

Here in warm, sunny Florida, our beleaguered Governor Rick Scott looks like a genius for killing Florida’s proposed high speed starter system between Orlando and Tampa to the southwest. Everything the governor predicted could come true with Florida high speed rail has already come true in California.

One other California high speed rail project not many are talking about in this process is the DesertXpress, a private company hoping to use public money loans to build a high speed rail system from Victorville, California, in the middle of the desert, to Las Vegas, Nevada.

The business plan calls for convincing Southern California drivers to drive east to Victorville, going through the worst of the heavy traffic between Southern California and Las Vegas, park their cars in Victorville, and then board a high speed train to whisk them to Las Vegas. Of the five hour drive between Southern California and Las Vegas on heavily traveled I-15, the worst of the traffic is between the Los Angeles area and Victorville, From Victorville into Las Vegas, it’s all open road at high speed.

No one has explained why the founders of the DesertXpress seem to believe drivers will abandon their automobiles after the worst part of the trip and then spend money to travel on a high speed train the easiest part of the trip.

The DesertXpress plan calls for an eventual connection to the rest of California’s proposed high speed system after it is built. Now that the California system is in jeopardy, you have to really wonder why anyone would continue to promote the DesertXpress. It easily could become another desert white elephant; a curiosity for future historians to wonder why it ever got as far as it did before it fell over and died from the weight of illogical choices.

If the main California system goes away and the DesertXpress system slows as a result, that makes life easier for other conventional rail projects now being planned for Southern California to Las Vegas.

Andrew Selden had this thought about the $6 billion California wants to start spending on high speed rail: “Imagine what you could do with $6 billion for the conventional passenger rail system in California; it could become the strongest in the country.”

Indeed, it could.

Two decades ago, there was a great debate in Southern California over the beginning of Metrolink. Tens of millions of dollars were spent acquiring private railroad right of way in and around Los Angeles and environs. Plans were drawn and implemented to upgrade the infrastructure into some of the finest in the world for passenger rail. It’s a beautiful system, and a sight to behold because public dollars were wisely spent on a not-too-ambitious system which built upon existing infrastructure and merely made things better and smoother running.

Metrolink continues to be a great success today, and created a template for other cities and regions to follow.

Reports have come that Ross Rowland has put his Greenbrier Express project on hold. The plan calls for service from major northeastern cities to the swank Greenbrier Resort in West Virginia. The Greenbrier Express was expected to have a regular schedule, but not a daily schedule.

The cited cause for the suspension of the project, according to a story in The Mercury newspaper of Pottstown, Pennsylvania, where the car refurbishment work was being done for the Greenbrier Express, is over-regulation by the federal government. Mr. Rowland said the Federal Railroad Administration has too high of standards for crash-worthiness if the cars were in an accident.

According to the story, the project isn’t dead, but is being reevaluated.

Many of you are familiar with Mr. Rowland as a former member of the Amtrak Board of Directors, and as the creator of the American Freedom Train. He was also involved in a project to attempt to bring steam locomotives back to mainline railroading.

Is all of this doom and gloom for private passenger service? Nah, it’s just a natural shaking out of projects, some of which never should have been started in the first place.

There are still enough other projects around the country in the works which will keep things going.

As long as we’re talking about surprising turns of events in the past few days, we have to include the change of direction Chairman John Mica of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has taken about change of ownership of Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor.

Chairman Mica had correctly said everyone would be better off if the NEC was not under Amtrak ownership, but ownership of another agency of the federal government and then the operations put out to bid.

The usual firestorm erupted from the New Jersey cabal of politicians and their cohorts who all believe Amtrak must be the owner and operator of the NEC so all of the local transit agencies who use the NEC daily (and, more than Amtrak) can continue to have sweetheart deals regarding the cost of infrastructure and maintenance and suck the economic life out of Amtrak in the process.

Mr. Mica said there was little support in Congress outside of his committee to do the deal, so he changed course, and is now supporting Amtrak ownership of the NEC and hopes to steer even more money to the NEC to upgrade it to what he calls true high speed rail.

Depending on who the next and/or continuing occupant of the White House is may ultimately decide this for good.

Gil Carmichael, former FRA Administrator during the Bush I years, and former Chairman of the Amtrak Reform Council, as well as the Founding Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Intermodal Transportation Institute at the University of Denver has started a new series of reports, entitled the Gil Carmichael Report, Investing in Interstate 2.0. The reports are free, informative, and a must read for anyone serious about the future of railroads in the United States. Contact the report distributor at geoff@jdmandassociates.com for your very own copy.

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J. Craig Thorpe, noted Amtrak and railroad illustrator is available for all railroads, railroad-related companies, and organizations for his dramatic illustrations on a custom basis. Mr. Thorpe’s impressive gallery of work and contacts for engagement may be viewed on his web site, which is listed below.

1. Sometimes, the information sneaks in through the backdoor, which is fine, as long as it comes in.

   Courtesy of the United States House of Representatives, Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, we have learned of Amtrak’s plans for new equipment.

   The United States House of Representatives, in a rush to spend more public money, has presented H.R. 2847, THE “JOBS FOR MAIN STREET ACT, 2010” which it considers to be a jobs creation bill. There is all types of transportation monies in the bill, including scads of money for Amtrak.

   Before you jump to any conclusions, this is a bill which is in progress, not a completed bill approved by both the House and Senate and sent to the president for signing. This is only a bill in progress, working its way through the legislative system.

   But, what this bill does is give us a good glimpse into Amtrak’s wish list for new equipment.

   Here’s what the bill has to say, pertaining only to Amtrak.

   AMTRAK: $800 MILLION

   H.R. 2847, the Jobs for Main Street Act, 2010: Title I, Chapter 6 of H.R. 2847 provides $800 million to Amtrak for fleet modernization, including rehabilitation of existing equipment and acquisition of new equipment such as fuel-efficient locomotives. It also strengthens Amtrak’s Buy America requirement to encourage domestic manufacturing and rehabilitation of the equipment.

   Amtrak’s equipment is aging; it is a major factor in delays. Some of Amtrak’s vehicles are more than 50 years old. The average life of a passenger rail car, depending on its usage, is 25 to 30 years. The lifespan of a locomotive is 20 to 25 years. Currently, Amtrak has 92 Heritage cars in service (which are 53 to 61 years old), 17 Metroliners (which are 42 years old), 412 Amfleet I cars (which are 32 to 35 years old), 122 Amfleet II cars (which are 28 to 29 years old), 249 Superliner I cars (which are 28 to 30 years old); 184 Superliner II cars (which are 13 to 15 years old), 97 Horizon cars (which are 19 to 20 years old), 50 Viewliners (which are 13 to 14 years old), 29 Talgo cars (which are 10 years old), 120 Acela cars (which are nine to 10 years old), and 41 Surfliners (which are seven to nine years old).

   With respect to locomotives, Amtrak has 49 AEM-7 locomotives (which are 21 to 29 years old), 18 P32’s (which are 18 years old), 18 P32DM’s (which are 11 to 14 years old), 21 F59PHI’s (which are 11 years old), 15 HHP-8’s (which are eight to 10 years old), and 207 P42’s (which are eight to 13 years old).

   Over the next five years and given adequate resources, Amtrak plans to purchase 396 new single-level vehicles for corridor service, which will replace about 95 percent of the Amfleet I vehicles; purchase 275 new single-level vehicles for long-haul service in an effort to remove all of the Heritage single-level cars and about 95 percent of the Amfleet II vehicles from service; purchase 160 new bi-level vehicles to replace 65 percent of the Superliner I cars; and purchase 100 new electric locomotives to replace the entire electric locomotive fleet. Amtrak also plans to acquire 54 new diesel locomotives, replacing 20 percent of its diesel fleet; and purchase five additional Acela trainsets and 41 new switch engines to replace the entire switcher fleet. Amtrak estimates that the effort requires capital funding of approximately $4.57 billion.

   Recovery Act Implementation: The Recovery Act provided Amtrak with $1.3 billion for capital improvements. Of the $1.3 billion, Amtrak has awarded $623 million in contracts for 350 projects. This amount represents 48 percent of the total apportionment. Other major initiatives are planned, including infrastructure improvements (such as major bridges); and improvements to rights-of-way, facilities and other structures, information management systems, and communications and signal systems. Amtrak is also making capital improvements to stations and other facilities to meet requirements under the Americans with Disabilities Act; various safety and security improvements, including purchasing police equipment; and replacing concrete ties.

   Okay, while your True Believer buddy to the left of you is jumping up and down for joy at the information above, you, being a regular reader of This Week at Amtrak, and, therefore, exercise more bold caution when it comes to announcements from Amtrak or about Amtrak, take a more critical view of what you have just read.

   You realize everything above only talks about REPLACING aging equipment; none of the hyperbole above actually talks about fleet EXPANSION.

   In other words, Amtrak, if it gets the big bucks, only plans to replace its fleet, not expand its fleet. Using Amtrak’s usual bureaucratic thinking nonsense about always wanting perfect government-think scenarios because they are neat and tidy and don’t require any real thought, probably considers all of that older-hopefully-replaced equipment as upcoming surplus, to be sent to the scrap yard.

   Amtrak still hasn’t learned its lesson from its chilly cousin to the north, VIA Rail Canada, which has the majority of its fleet’s equipment older than what Amtrak is using, and they cheerfully slap a new coat of paint on it, take out some of the dents, upgrade the electronics, and keep it going down the road with great dispatch, mostly because when Budd built the stuff in the 1950s, they built is the same way other companies built Sherman tanks: virtually indestructible.

   But, no, that won’t do for Amtrak. Amtrak wants all-new, instead of new augmenting older for a blended fleet with different purposes. Heaven forbid Amtrak maintenance would have to be as clever as VIA Rail Canada maintenance.

   So, yes, it’s nice to know Amtrak does have some plan tucked away somewhere for the future. Unfortunately, that plan doesn’t call for any expansion, or any improvements. It only calls for replacements.

   Amtrak hasn’t figured out that wars are not won by just replacing dead soldiers; wars are won by determined surges making use of a combination of existing and new soldiers.

2. Did you notice the ad in the November 2009 issue of Railway Age Magazine?

   It has the unglamorous title of “Request For Proposals: 10-PCJPB-T-025 For a Rail System Operator.” Did that make you start tingling all over? No? Well, here’s why it should.

   The ad was placed by Caltrain, which operates the former Southern Pacific Railroad commuter service in and out of San Francisco and down the San Francisco Peninsula. Caltrain operates 98 trains per day, San Francisco-San Jose-Gilroy, with a total of 33 stations (including endpoint terminals). Included in the system is the famed Silicon Valley. The system has 77 miles of track with a top speed of 79 M.P.H. Caltrain carries on average, 39,000 passengers a day on weekdays.

   This is not an inconsequential system; there are 29 locomotives and 110 passenger cars.

   Let’s look at Amtrak in California; Amtrak’s biggest state cash cow. Amtrak takes in State of California (Caltrans) revenues for operating costs for the Capitols, San Joaquins, Pacific Surfliners, and, now Southern California’s Metrolink, in addition to its current operations deal for Caltrain.

   Amtrak has been operating Caltrain on behalf of the Peninsula Corridor Joint Powers Board (a longish and legally proper way of saying the old Southern Pacific San Francisco Peninsula commuter service) since 1992. Now, the contract is up, and Caltrain has advertised for a request for proposals.

   Amtrak just lost the Virginia Railway Express on the Right Coast; what would happen if it lost Caltrain on the Left Coast?

   With the addition of Southern California’s Metrolink, probably not much on the surface; the Amtrak bureaucracy in the West would just keep on marching.

   Those with a sharp eye may notice Gilroy, California is on the Union Pacific main line which is traversed by Amtrak’s Coast Starlight. Gilroy slips right in the middle of the San Jose and Salinas station stops.

   So, let’s speculate, just a bit, as an intellectual exercise.

   Suppose Amtrak doesn’t keep the Caltrain contract; suppose some other service provider, such as Veolia Transportation, Herzog, or even the French company which is taking over VRE on the far side of the country successfully bid for and win the Caltrain contract.

   And, then, suppose the Caltrain operator performs successfully, and pleases not only the folks at Caltrain, but also – more importantly – the folks at Caltrans, who are monthly writing big, big checks to Amtrak for operating the Pacific Surfliners, Capitols, and San Joaquins (Metrolink writes its own checks).

   What if some renegade bureaucrat in Caltrans says, “well, Caltrain is doing so well, how can we expand that service?

   “What would happen if, say, we took one or two of those Caltrain consists, and pushed them further south than Gilroy, perhaps all the way to Los Angeles?

   “What would happen if Union Pacific Railroad liked the Caltrain operator better than Amtrak?

   “What would happen, if say, well, gee, we just start turning over all of the Caltrans contracts to the Caltrain operator, instead of retaining Amtrak contract after contract?”

   The answer is, Amtrak would suffer a horrible blow, and be crippled tremendously in the west. Amtrak would actually have real world competition. Amtrak would have to sing for its supper every night. Amtrak would really have to perform.

   All of this, of course, comes under the heading “what if?”. But, it’s an intriguing “what if?”.

   Amtrak for too long has taken most of its world for granted. It has even had the hubris of presuming it will be the preferred operator of the coming various high speed rail systems, even though it has not done well operating what it has today.

   An article in today’s Daily Finance (www.dailyfinance.com) says Japan Central Railway has started putting together a proposal to be the sole builder and operator of America’s high speed rail system; everything from building track and infrastructure to building and operating trainsets. These are the same folks who operate the profitable bullet train franchise in Japan today.

   The French and Germans want in on the USA action, too.

   Amtrak may think it has the home field advantage, but it’s tough to see how, when there are much more successful worldwide competitors out there knocking on America’s door.

   Veolia Transportation, which operates some sort of commuter rail or transit system in over 500 cities around the world (equivalent to Amtrak’s number of station stops in the national system) wants in on US high speed rail, too. They have the talent, and they have the financial clout to make it happen.

   Will Amtrak understand in time what is swirling around it and potentially causing a lot of mayhem? Will Amtrak understand it has a long, long way to go to get its corporate house in order so it can fend off these much more successful international competitors? It’s going to take a lot more clout than Amtrak has today on Capitol Hill to keep things together. Amtrak needs to understand the world is not an exclusive Amworld.

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