Amtrak Chairman of the Board Tom Carper, please call your office. In the next few months, your railroad is about to be in grave danger of disappearing as we know it.

Amtrak President and Chief Executive Officer Joseph Boardman has set in place a plan which is about to cause such spectacular failure, the company may never recover from it.

If you are a member of the Association of Independent Passenger Rail Operators (AIPRO, www.passengerrail.org) things are very interesting right now, and there is about to be the largest pool of senior executive passenger rail talent available in the past quarter of a century.

In chaos, there is opportunity. But, the chaos may be too large; the opportunity too convoluted for many to understand. In short, Amtrak appears to be imploding, and Mr. Boardman needs to be replaced at the earliest moment.

Mr. Boardman is currently restructuring (again) Amtrak as a corporation and organization. He recently initiated a not-quite-golden parachute program (think, perhaps, instead, silver parachutes) for non-union employees and managers at Amtrak. Those current ranks number over 3,000 managers systemwide, overseeing a total workforce of over 20,000 employees. None of the more than 17,000 agreement (union) employees are subject to this restructuring.

The word to targeted employees and managers was, we’re making it easy for your to take a generous buyout, and, if enough of you don’t, you can expect the company will make choices for you that you probably won’t like, and not have the benefit of the buyout cash.

This is not uncommon in the corporate world, but, it rarely produces the results hoped for. Here is what one wag had to say about the situation:

It has been suggested (by a retired, Fortune 50, HR executive with a career specialty in executive development and assessment), namely, Boardman is simply in over his head, the Dilbert “pointy-haired boss.” The Peter Principle. This source says what we are seeing is almost always what happens with untargeted buyout offers, because younger, high potential employees see not vacancies up the ladder but a sinking ship, with the buyout simply a bonus for being first into the lifeboat, so they leap at the offer, and older ones just being literally tired of the chaos, of the bad leadership, the bad results, of the hopelessness, of being affiliated with a losing team, so they jump at the offer, too.

What is left is the dregs and the unemployables.

Reportedly, when the Soo Line decided to exit the business, and the ICC balked, they fired the car cleaners. SP replaced diners with vending machines. PC just fell apart.

Maybe Boardman is creating a situation where the national system simply collapses under winter conditions, with no power, no plan, no leadership, and soon no customers.

There are reports of over 150 mid-level and high-level (including some of the senior-most vice presidents in some of the most critical positions on the operations side of the company) managers and executives applying for the program. Some managers have been told their departments are being combined with other departments (at times, some really odd combinations which smack more of bureaucratic empire building rewarding cronies than thoughtful combinations for efficiency), and being told to eliminate up to half of their staffs. Shockingly, many senior safety-related management positions are being eliminated, posing huge questions about conditions for employees and passengers.

Longtime transportation writer Don Phillips, in an online column for Trains Magazine on December 5th, ran a similar story, and Amtrak denied to him any potential safety problems as a result of departing managers.

There is no doubt Amtrak for years has been overstaffed and its management cadre has been overfed. But, when you are choosing which cows to slaughter, you choose a balanced mix which thins the herd, but doesn’t endanger the long term viability of the herd by either eliminating all of the males or females. Some reports have told of managers departing which should have been gone decades ago; these very people often created near impossible conditions for other Amtrak managers and agreement employees to function in a positive way. Those will not be missed. But, so many others will be missed in so many ways.

Amtrak appears to be on the path of reckless slaughtering of the herd with no thought for the future.

One wise Washington gray head inquired as to why this buyout scenario is different from the one in the 1990s which caused a lot of very senior people to leave.

The difference is, there was a competent junior varsity team which was close to being ready to step up and take the place of the departing managers. Some of those, who are still with the company, are the ones leaving this time. After all of the turmoil of the past two decades at Amtrak, many of the best people have moved on to more rewarding careers. Once this group of managers leaves, the ranks of managers – particularly on the operating side – are going to be thin.

Causing great fright is the number of competent, well-respected senior managers in the field in places like Chicago and the West Coast which are grabbing the buyout, and are going to leave Amtrak without seasoned field leadership. Too many managers responsible for maintenance and keeping the fleet rolling are leaving, too.

One former senior field manager correctly said, “There was always a good group of people managing in the field; it’s always been the few non-operating very senior managers in Washington who have kept things screwed up.”

What is going to happen this winter in Chicago when Amtrak can’t muster enough locomotives to launch the full schedule of daily trains? Who is going to be there to figure out what to do when most of the Chicago fleet is debilitated by ice and frozen stiff, and there too many cars are bad ordered as a result?

Will Amtrak just do what it did with the east end of the Sunset Limited and simply discontinue trains at will, and, somehow, forget to reinstate them later?

For all of the Boardman years, Amtrak straw men have told us time and again how well things are going, despite the lousy economy. We have seen press releases boasting of record ridership and revenues (while ignoring load factor, the only real metric which matters).

Yet, year after year during the Boardman stewardship, we have seen the operating subsidy rise. This is most perplexing, since Amtrak is not operating any more or longer trains, merely filling empty seats with new riders. No new employees are being added, and, the cost of diesel fuel can’t exclusively be blamed.

VIA Rail Canada, a crown corporation, operates very much like Amtrak; it receives an annual operating subsidy from the Canadian federal government, and occasional subsidies for equipment upgrades and other issues. VIA just published a press release saying it has lowered its operating subsidy from the government, while Amtrak says it needs more.

Why? VIA for years has labored under the perception it is one of Canada’s worst companies, yet it is making progress. Why can VIA make progress, and Amtrak can’t?

It comes down to leadership.

Here are some considerations why Amtrak needs a new president and chief executive officer, and needs one today.

Company performance is abysmal

On time performance systemwide is between 75-80%; Acela has on time performance of 84%, short haul trains less than 79%, and the long distance system of less than 65%. All of this at a time when America’s freight lines are not suffering from congestion; freight train interference cannot be blamed.

For the year, there have been over 4,300 cancelled or terminated trains in the Amtrak system. Some of this is due to weather such as blizzards, hurricanes, and major storms. Amtrak usually seems to find any minor excuse not to launch a train from a terminal. The great majority of the time when this happens, an accompanying note says, “no alternative transportation provided.” Translated, that means passengers are on their own; don’t look to Amtrak for any assistance.

Locomotives out of service regularly hit over the 20% mark; passenger cars, depending on the type of car, 10-14%.

It’s election season

Presidential elections are less than a year away. Amtrak usually plays the smallest of small roles in presidential elections. High speed rail, a signature initiative of the White House is on life support. Between Vice President Joe Biden, known in some circles as “Amtrak Joe,” and the support the White House has shown for passenger rail, seldom has there been an administration more closely linked with passenger rail.

The Amtrak managers and executives taking the buyout will be gone in 60 days or less; which puts Amtrak in the dead of winter. Give everything another 90 days to fall apart as the company adjusts to the loss of talent, and you’re in the final six months of an election year when Amtrak could start making negative headlines.

The current Republican president of Amtrak will be blamed by many, but the Democrat chairman of the board and the board of directors will be the ultimate “buck stops here” figure.

The top contenders for the Republican nomination for president have all indicated they want to end Amtrak subsidies. If Amtrak leadership is allowed to continue on the path they now trod, ending Amtrak subsidies will become an academic debate, as much of Amtrak as we know it today will simply vanish under its own weight of poor leadership.

The big picture on politics

Amtrak’s northeast corridor survives mostly based on politics. The states which profit greatly from Amtrak owning and maintaining the NEC all have political clout – but, not enough if Amtrak’s national system shrinks from its present skeletal condition. The NEC profits greatly from the political support of the flyover states – which, from the perspective of the NEC, is everything but the NEC states. If there is no Amtrak in New Mexico, why should New Mexico politicians vote to shovel money into the NEC if it’s not connected to a national system? Without the long distance system, the NEC is politically and financially doomed. If Amtrak present leadership stays in place, the long distance system is in great peril. More than once, Mr. Boardman has testified before Congress and told members of the media the long distance system is the greatest economic drain on the company, ignoring the financial and political reality of the long distance system.

If Mr. Boardman chooses to allow the long distance system simply wither away thinking it doesn’t matter to the overall health and wealth of the company, he chooses to make a policy decision for everyone in the country: long distance passenger rail is no longer desirable or necessary. It should not be up to Mr. Boardman to make such a momentous decision, which in every case would be wrong.

Since out of chaos comes opportunities, the opportunity presents itself for a fresh look at Amtrak and passenger rail in general.

If Amtrak doesn’t want to be the nation’s long distance passenger train operator, then who would like to take that opportunity and run with it? There are many competent long distance passenger train operators in the world which could bring their knowledge and craft to the United States; some of them are already here in the array of members of AIPRO.

Then, there are the several states

It’s no secret among those who keep up with the politics of state supported corridor trains many state departments of transportation would very much like to free themselves from the yoke of oppression having Amtrak as the operator of their state trains. They know as a fact Amtrak is always the most expensive and unpredictable operator of corridor passenger trains, and they know in the next couple of years when PRIIA requirements kick in for states to shoulder more of the burden of the cost of corridor trains, states costs will at least double, if not triple in some instances.

Most of the states simply cannot afford that kind of price hike in this debilitated economy. Amtrak rakes in about $200 million a year from state subsidies. Lose that money and the company really is in a world of hurt. Because Amtrak’s headquarters operation is so large and so much of the company’s costs are charged to individual states, if state business goes away, the remaining company will be in great danger of survival.

Instantly, some people will say, “Amtrak is the only company with enough equipment to operate most of the state trains, so the states have no choice but to use Amtrak.”

Really?

Are you sure?

All through history, too many people have thrown down ultimatums, and been severely surprised at the results. There is enough equipment floating around the previously-owned marketplace which could start replacing Amtrak equipment on some state supported routes. Don’t believe for a second railcar manufacturers won’t rush in to give aid and comfort to any state which wishes to remove itself from Amtrak’s financial clutches.

If the first domino falls, you won’t have to wait too long for the rest of the states to figure out what to do. Oh, and don’t forget California. Remember the Amtrak California fleet? Amtrak doesn’t own those cars and locomotives.

Does Amtrak want a future outside the Northeast Corridor?

Several states and regions have been the recipients of restored or future service studies conducted by Amtrak or the private sector using Amtrak-provided data. Studies have included the restoration of the Sunset Limited east of New Orleans into Florida, the creation of service in Ohio between Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, the restoration of the Pioneer route into the Pacific Northwest, and, of late, the extension of existing Heartland Flyer service from Texas and Oklahoma to Kansas City.

One theme has been prevalent in each of these studies: Allegedly, it will take tens – if not hundreds – of millions of dollars for service on any route studied, and the time lines have been measured in multiple years, sometimes stretching to almost a decade.

The ongoing signal has been: we’ve (Amtrak) conducted this study, but we really don’t want to do any new service, so we’re making the study results so expensive and unappealing, this will all just go away like a bad dream.

We have seen minimal lip service paid to the equipment needs of trains outside of the NEC. Yes, there has been an order placed for new sleepers, diners, crew and baggage cars for use on the Eastern long distance trains.

But, as was done with the minimal order placed for the original Viewliner sleepers, this new order won’t provide much for expansion, and barely keeps up with present demand. As far as bi-level equipment on Western long distance trains, that fleet constantly shrinks through derailments and lack of maintenance. It’s been two decades since the Superliner II order was placed, and no help seems to be on the horizon.

Useable older equipment, eschewed by Amtrak in favor of new equipment, has found new homes at VIA Rail Canada and elsewhere, and is still able to provide reliable passenger service when properly maintained. Amtrak a few presidencies ago even sent the entire original Metroliner fleet to the scrap yard for salvage value instead of having the foresight that equipment could have been updated and put to use in proposed corridor services around the country.

VIA Rail Canada, the State of North Carolina and others have taken existing rolling stock, had it completely remanufactured to new specifications and appointments so that it is “Zero Age” – or has the same functionality and projected lifespan as new equipment – at less than half the cost and in far less than half the time as procuring new equipment.

Why has this easy source of rolling stock eluded Amtrak?

One inexplicable act of Amtrak has always (with the notable exception of the Acela equipment) been to outright buy new rolling stock instead of leasing it. Just about every other type of common carrier seeks long term leasing deals on equipment, which always bootstraps itself for making lease payments through daily use. Amtrak always seems content to wait for free federal monies from Congress to buy equipment instead of finding a way from car manufacturers and others which have existing programs in place to provide equipment on a fast, economical, and easy basis.

In summary

The Obama Administration has a huge potential political problem on its hands from an unlikely source: Amtrak. If Amtrak goes much further into the winter season (Winter officially begins on Thursday, December 22nd, but try to convince those who have already been snowed in this year it hasn’t already started.) without the necessary management personnel it needs to hold the duct tape and bailing wire together, the system could come to a grinding halt with all of the accompanying negative headlines.

States are already looking for ways to abandon Amtrak for state supported routes in favor of less expensive operators, who are lining up outside of office doors to make their cases.

The NEC does not have enough political clout to maintain the fierce flow of federal monies to the NEC for the advantage of local and regional commuter operators if the political muscle of states being served by long distance trains disappears.

Many simply believe Amtrak is so far gone, it’s a hopeless cause. That may be true. But, for all of the tens of billions invested in Amtrak over the past 40 years and with Amtrak’s minuscule transportation market share (less than that of motorcycles nationally), the nation’s taxpayers deserve a shot at recovering their losses through better leadership and management than Amtrak has today.

Stop the bleeding by changing presidents. Even an interim president could arrive with a fresh set of eyes and make an assessment of what there is left to work with. Find someone from outside of the Northeast Corridor who is able to focus on all of the country, not just the NEC. We in Florida, Nebraska, Oregon, Arizona, Mississippi, and every other state outside of the NEC have as much claim on decent passenger train service through federal efforts as taxpayers of the NEC. To think less is to think less of us outside the NEC as Americans.

Gil Carmichael, former FRA Administrator during the Bush I years, and former Chairman of the Amtrak Reform Council, as well as the Founding Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Intermodal Transportation Institute at the University of Denver has started a new series of reports, entitled the Gil Carmichael Report, Investing in Interstate 2.0. The reports are free, informative, and a must read for anyone serious about the future of railroads in the United States. Contact the report distributor at geoff@jdmandassociates.com for your very own copy.

J. Craig Thorpe, noted Amtrak and railroad illustrator is available for all railroads, railroad-related companies, and organizations for his dramatic illustrations on a custom basis. Mr. Thorpe’s impressive gallery of work and contacts for engagement may be viewed on his web site, which is listed below.

We hear from the UTU that the contract of Amtrak’s President Joseph Boardman has been extended to 2013, leaving only the Amtrak Board incomplete for the upcoming year.

The Board is now more populated than at any time since the Clinton administration, but one opening remains. Representation of the West has been less than sparse in recent decades, and somewhat surprisingly comes news that both Senators from the State of California, and 24 of its United States Representatives, noticed this fact and sent a letter to President B. H. Obama, calling for the lone open seat to be filled by a Californian:

CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES

July 7, 2010

President Barack H. Obama

Dear Mr. President:

We write you today to urge you to consider a qualified individual from California with a clear understanding of the unique California Amtrak system as you make nominations for the remaining vacancy to the Amtrak Board of Directors.  Currently, no states west of Texas are represented on the board.

The Passenger Rail Investment and Improvement Act of 2008 states that the President shall “try to provide adequate and balanced representation of the major geographic regions of the United States served by Amtrak” when nominating members to the board.  As it stands, no such balanced representation exists.  The lack of geographical diversity on the board is contrary to Amtrak’s authorizing language.

California has the highest Amtrak usage of any state in the country.  In 2009, one in five of Amtrak’s 27 million passengers rode in California.  Three of the top six most traveled routes in Amtrak’s system are in our state.  In addition, California’s Amtrak system has a unique and highly successful partnership with the State, and California is likely to be the first to integrate the needs of high speed rail and Amtrak.  We believe that with seven voting members appointed by the President, at least one individual with expertise in California’s passenger rail system is warranted.

The role of passenger rail is as vital to the West as it is historic.  We urge you to consider Amtrak’s significant presence in California by nominating a qualified Californian to the Board of Directors.  Thank you for your consideration of this request.

Sincerely,

(signatures by the following)

U.S. Senators:  Dianne Feinstein and Barbara Boxer

Members of Congress:  Jane Harman, George Miller, John Garamendi, Henry Waxman, Linda Sanchez, Jackie Speier, Zoe Lofgren, Mike Honda, Adam Schiff, Lois Capps, Jim Costa, Judy Chu, Laura Richardson, Bob Filner, Diane Watson, Brian Bilbray, Ken Calvert, Jerry McNerney, Grace Napolitano, Mike Thompson, Gary Miller, Dennis Cardoza, Lucille Roybal-Allard, and Loretta Sanchez

It is a testament to the many who have created the California rail renaissance that members of Congress from both sides of the aisle are increasingly taking notice.

Whither the Sunset?

Looking eastward, the anticipated Sunset Limited service changes have neither proceeded, nor failed to proceed. The town of Maricopa (in Pinal County, not Maricopa County which contains Phoenix) has protested against a schedule change, on the not unreasonable grounds of public safety. The poorly designed depot there has a platform far too short for the Sunset to stop, so the train will stop once to change crews, move a hundred feet or so, stop for the first sleeper, move again, stop for the coaches, and so on. This can take ten or even twenty minutes, during which time the train blocks the state highway and bisects the town, isolating new homes from the fire department and causing large traffic jams.

The Arizona Rail Passenger Association passed  a resolution in support of daily service, but something needs to be done about Maricopa. Something like finding a way for the train to directly serve America’s fifth largest city of Phoenix, perhaps.

Norfolk Service Planned

Now to the eastern seaboard, where there is excitement in Virginia over a new train which has received state funding. The Commonwealth seeks to create an entirely new route between Norfolk, and Petersburg, just south of Richmond, and on into the Northeast Corridor to Boston. You can read the Executive Summary at the Virginia Department of Rail and Public Transportation site.

Norfolk, the huge military and industrial hub, is part of southeast Virginia’s sprawling Hampton Roads region, which includes major population centers on two sides of the James River and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay. Included are Norfolk, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Hampton, Portsmouth, Virginia Beach, and Newport News. Any of these cities by themselves are larger than most stops in the Amtrak system. Newport News has always had Amtrak service, including two daily trains today. But, it takes an Amtrak Thruway bus connection to make it across the bridge into Norfolk.

John Lee writes us,

There is much to like about this proposal, but one key flaw.

A piece of railroad track owned by Norfolk Southern, which hasn’t seen passenger service since the 1950s when it was the Norfolk & Western Railway, will again be hosting a daily passenger train. The train will originate in the City of Norfolk, which itself by any passenger rail carrier has not seen service since well before Amtrak.

Norfolk at one time was a major passenger rail hub, especially during World War II when the Navy and other military were the predominant force in the Hampton Roads area. Norfolk had a large, grand station, which included an office tower above the head house. Sadly, that structure, when only about 50 years old, was destroyed in the name of urban renewal for downtown Norfolk in the destructive years of the 1960s, as was the fate of the Pennsylvania Station in New York City.

In the 21st Century, Norfolk is building a new station for new service. But, the flaw in the service being commenced by Virginia and Amtrak is the train will begin in Norfolk, and after stopping about 10 miles out at Bower’s Hill, travel non-stop, first west and then north — right through the highly populated city of Suffolk — to Richmond, the state capital.

Suffolk, a city of 67,000, is eleven miles west of Bower’s Hill but (according to Google Maps) a twenty-five minute drive away. The train also will pass through Windsor (population 3,000), Wakefield (a town of about a thousand, the “Peanut Capital of the World” and home of the famous Virginia Diner), and Waverly (population 2,300) without stopping.

There is an incorrect expectation that potential Suffolk passengers will drive east to take a train west and north. Under the current plan, all the population in the five farm counties – about 100 miles worth – between Suffolk and Richmond which have no other means of transportation other than surface road transportation and a couple small airfields, are ignored.

The two trains to Newport News will continue to operate, and enjoy intermediate stop business at the tourism mecca of Colonial Williamsburg. Petersburg will continue to have service for the Silver Meteor, Silver Star, Palmetto, and Carolinean. But, it is again going to be a classic example of “you can’t get there from here” for Norfolk and the surrounding countryside.

Virginia officials are enthusiastic about spending $93 million of Commonwealth  monies to start this service, and it’s a good start. They proclaim a second frequency will soon come, after the first frequency shows its chops, as the new service on the westerly Norfolk Southern line between Lynchburg and the Northeast Corridor has shown. But, the Lynchburg service, which is showing a profit (no state subsidies required since ridership and revenue is much above projections), also has the second frequency provided by the Crescent. The new Norfolk service is only one frequency in the beginning.

As this plan goes forward, and, so far, most of the plan has been sound, will Virginia and Amtrak entertain modifying their plan to allow other areas to provide local stations? Suffolk certainly is large enough to warrant a station, and at least one of the other towns along the route should be considered for a truly regional service.

For decades, people serious about passenger rail have clamored for more than one station stop in major metropolitan areas. In Florida, the Central Florida/Orlando area has four Amtrak stops in less of the geographic area than the new Virginia service, and all of those stops produce good ridership. Yet, just down the track, in Tampa, that huge area, comparable to Hampton Roads, only has two stops, and the rest are serviced by Amtrak Thruway busses. Tampa could easily support at least one more metropolitan area stop in Plant City.

“Build it and they will come” is true to a certain extent. The new Norfolk to Richmond to Boston service is a good start, and it should enjoy decent ridership. But, what is being left on the table? If at least two more stops were added, which would only add to operating costs in a minuscule way (It does cost diesel fuel to stop and restart a train), how much more ridership and revenue would be gained?

This is a state subsidized train, which means Other People’s Money is being used to start the service and maintain the service. When using OPM, it is always best to look at all possible scenarios to make every dollar spent work as hard as possible to create revenue to repay that dollar as quickly as possible.

Next time, we intend to look at Republican U.S. Representative Mac Thornberry’s call to allegedly save $1.2 billion over a decade by axeing Amtrak’s first class service.

This week we look first at Amtrak’s slow pace, then at continued nationwide wrong-think surrounding Amtrak’s new venture into high speed rail; and we wrap up with a guest commentary by our Andrew C. Selden.

“In the unlikely event of a cabin depressurization, oxygen masks will appear overhead. Reach up and pull the mask closest to you, fully extending the plastic tubing, fasten the straps, and begin breathing normally…  If you are seated next to a small child or someone needing assistance, secure your own mask first, then assist the child.”

– Airplane safety announcement

Consider a dramatization of the above starring Amtrak’s Joseph Boardman as the passenger, and network expansion as the child. Faced with the upcoming depressurization of its system through aging equipment, Amtrak is now in the process of securing its own mask with an equipment order.  This is no little feat, but Congress still holds the strings. The mask isn’t even on yet, and as the air drains away, what are the prospects for the little form in the next seat?

Readers of This Week have had plenty to say about Amtrak’s progress, or lack thereof. Charles McMillan wrote:

I just finished reading your March 31st issue and I have just visited the two universities in Montana, Meeting with Faculty/Students/Staff and interested local citizens who want to see the restoration of the North Coast Hiawatha reinstated. In fact the consensus is to pretty much take the bull by the horns and get America back to the forefront of technology and world leadership in all areas of Science and Business. They are very adamant about this!

Their desire for Amtrak to get off of this NEC mentality and get a nation wide rail passenger system in place is unparalleled. They are disgusted with Joe Boardman and the  attitude of the present board of directors in this regard, because they see no real growth on the part of Amtrak in the form of expanding routes around the country. They keep asking “how much growth in ridership can Amtrak realize just by operating their present routes without adding more trains,coaches or service”? “Can’t they (Amtrak) see that expansion is the key to real growth.”  These are some of the thoughts of the general public and our Univesity system students.

We are continuing to garner support for this N.C.H. train all across the northwest including Minnesota.

Jerry Sullivan echoes a sentiment of frustration at,

Amtrak’s absolute refusal to restore the Sunset, or even a connecting train, to Florida.  The only train I rode regularly was the Sunset prior to August 2005, and I have not been on a train since, except for excursions.  Amtrak has become irrelevant; although I despise flying, Southwest Airlines is now my forced choice until Amtrak gets off their backside on the Sunset issue.

Until last year’s flawed Gulf Coast report is revisited and corrected, and until enough new — not just replacement — equipment is available, probably nothing will happen. Amtrak may be the only company whose product is desperately wanted by everyone but refuses to offer more of it.

As to markets and expansion, Christopher Parker noted, in reference to the speed comparison table:

[At that time,] top speeds were held by limiteds that were mostly overnight sleepers, a market [ceded] to the airlines… You should be comparing today’s trains to the stopping [all-stop local] trains of old.  The other factor is we live in a more open and safety conscious world – routine disregard of speed limits is impossible now, as are top speeds over 79mph without automatic train-stop.

I wonder if railroads had the regulative freedom to run very fast if the fate of the passenger train would have turned out differently.  Speed makes a huge difference in staying competitive.  With some exceptions (IC), today’s top speeds aren’t much different.

True, after a number of accidents fifty years ago, legislation was passed that did limit train speeds.  Modern safety devices warrant revisiting those speeds, as does the pending implementation of Positive Train Control, along with satellite, GPS, wireless technology, and computer control. There must be an equilibrium point of higher speeds versus construction and maintenance costs.  How to implement a mixing of relatively high speed passenger trains in an era of double-stack containers and long unit coal trains is no easy task, but a worthwhile one. Mr. Parker suggests, that with good track and “cheap technology to detect open switches, dark territory should be good for 70-79 mph.”

And while railroads no longer have the monopoly on business travel, but European experience suggests there is plenty of market here for a slogan like “we are your rolling hotel.”  A businessman at a conference in Phoenix could have a late dinner, board the midnight sleeper, and be in downtown Los Angeles by morning in plenty of time for a 9am meeting.  Mr. Parker responds, “Let’s start by getting sleepers back on the [Washington-Boston] Night Owl or whatever they call it now.” Could not be repeated across the country?

Amtrak’s newest focus is on high speed rail.  As yet they have little involvement in most of the pending projects, so let us see the fine mess they are getting into.

Over the last few weeks we have compared Wisconsin’s pragmatic expansion approach to Florida’s Bullet Train That Doesn’t Connect (Daniel Carleton, 23 March 2010).  We will look at Colorado’s venture into high speed rail in a moment, but first consider the California high speed project, which started some years ago along the lines of the Florida fiasco. Each refinement, we are pleased to report, generally tended toward a more logical approach. Maglev was eliminated in favor of compatible steel-wheel technology, permitting shared rights-of-way and stations. Nevertheless, room for improvement still exists in the “Plays well with others” department:

In a letter dated 23 March 2010, the Orange County Transportation Authority (OCTA) and the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority (Metro) ask the California High Speed Rail Authority (CAHSRA) to please revisit and consider “a rational shared use option in the Anaheim to Los Angeles segment of the CAHSRA project… In November of 2009, the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) issued its first High Speed Passenger Rail Safety Strategy which provides a strategy for the development of shared use corridors. We believe this safety strategy has direct applicability to” the L.A.-Anaheim corridor and they point out that “reports prepared by the CAHSRA staff and consultants did not contemplate any discussion of the rationalization of passenger services in the Anaheim to Los Angeles segment… [part of] the second busiest passenger rail corridor in the nation… we would like to make these services more coordinated and integrated.”

One could well read this as a formal, polite way of saying, “You’re doing it wrong,” and one does wish that high speed trains, where they are built in this country, integrate with local trains and transit as well as they do in Germany, for example.  In Germany they have even figured out how to run a streetcar into a regular train station, where you might see one on the platform alongside an ICE high-speed train.  If the Germans can master the engineering and those safety features to give easy cross-platform transfers, why can’t we?

Meanwhile at the northern end of that California corridor, the San Francisco Chronicle reported on April 3rd that Caltrain, facing “plummeting sales tax revenues and shrinking ridership” could be forced “to eliminate its midday, night and weekend service, and return to its roots as a commuter-only railroad.” Yet an article there the previous day noted of the new High Speed project, “New numbers put the price of the Anaheim-to-San Francisco segment alone at $42.6 billion.”

Why are we spending millions on high-speed rail studies to the detriment of existing services? Why are we further planning new trains that will hurt, instead of complement, the few successful ones we have spent decades building? Cannot even railroad people work together or has too many years of fighting the highway lobby fractured the passenger train industry?

Colorado is poised to make the same mistake. Railway Track and Structures on March 30th reported,

A study of possible high-speed, intercity rail for Colorado has found that lines between Fort Collins and Pueblo and between Denver International Airport and Eagle County have the best “operating and cost-benefit results” of the options evaluated… The full system carries a $21.1-billion price tag, but Harry Dale, chairman of the Rocky Mountain Rail Authority, which produced the study, said the rail system would probably be built in phases…

The feasibility study… took 18 months to complete and cost $1.4 million… “It might be 10 to 20 years before we actually build anything,” [Dale] said…

The study identifies a $3.32-billion rail segment from DIA to downtown Denver and then south to Colorado Springs as a likely first phase [,which Dale said] would not compete directly with [the] Regional Transportation District”s planned East Corridor commuter train that will link the airport and Denver’s Union Station.

“This [HSR] is not meant to be fare-subsidized,” Dale said of the proposed high-speed rail system. “Average speeds must be superior to travel by car, or nobody will ride. There have got to be time savings to make it worthwhile.”

Does it not matter that almost every new well-planned light-rail and regional-rail system in the West has met, exceeded, or far exceeded ridership expectations? Why spend money planning a second “high speed” system paralleling a regional train we haven’t even built yet?  Why do we keep having to fight the superfast fallacy? Frequency, dependability, and the matrix of connections are what attract people to trains — not high speeds.  Dr. Adrian Herzog’s Matrix Theory, despite being proven repeatedly, continues to be ignored.

— William Lindley, Scottsdale, Ariz.

p.s., Mr. Selden’s guest commentary follows.

Why Joseph Boardman Can’t Succeed

By Andrew Selden

Joe Boardman is a fine fellow, and an experienced rail administrator, but his tenure is doomed to be another failure as CEO of Amtrak, for the simple reason that his strategy for the company is to pour ever more capital and effort into the exact same business strategies and plans that have failed the company consistently for four decades. This is evidenced by Amtrak’s latest strategic “plan” released late this winter.

“Amtrak Planning” has come to be as much of an oxymoron as “Amtrak Accounting.” Key elements of the latest plan:

• Upgrade interiors and add WiFi on Acela trains, with leather seats, new tray tables and improved at-seat power outlets.
• NEC infrastructure enhancements such as a new Niantic River drawbridge in Connecticut, new power supply equipment for New York – Washington, new switches at Chicago Union Station, new car shops at Los Angeles, station renovation at Wilmington, Delaware, fire safety improvements in the Hudson River tunnels, car renovation at Beech Grove, NEC track and wire maintenance, etc.
• Study its “poorest performing long-distance routes” to identify possible changes. These routes include the Sunset Limited, Eagle, Cardinal, Capitol Limited and California Zephyr. (No mention of chronically underperforming short routes.)
• Expand state-funded short corridors.
• Install PTC on Amtrak-owned track.
• Increase security.
• Replace large parts of the company’s locomotive and car fleet.

Now, this all sounds wonderful, and many observers leapt on the last item as proof that “Amtrak was home free and the Age of Aquarius was upon us.” No one paused to ask, “With the U.S. trillions of dollars in debt and piling on new debt just as fast as we can sell bonds to the Chinese, how is Amtrak going to pay for all this?”

Even worse, no one seemed to notice that Amtrak’s plans were nothing more than a reshuffle of the same tired 40-year-old business plan that has put Amtrak into a financial black hole. (Amtrak’s net loss worsened again last year, proving once again that the billions “invested” so far into the NEC, Acela, and all the other infrastructure projects has produced a negative rate of return on investment.) No one asked: “Based on 40 years of consistent failure and steadily worsening financial results, why should we continue pouring billions of new dollars of federal support down the same old black hole?”

This ultimately is why Mr. Boardman cannot succeed: recycling failed business strategies is not “planning.” Doubling the bet on a losing position is a poor strategy.

When Amtrak released its wish list of new engines and rolling stock in March, it took independent analysis by URPA professionals to point out that the “new fleet” strategy reflected a net shrinkage of lift capacity in the national system.

But, there may be a growing awareness inside Amtrak that they are missing out in their long distance markets. At an Amtrak conference in Chicago in March, some interesting ideas were surfaced. A URPA attendee reported:

“Amtrak made official their intent to restructure the Sunset and Texas Eagle routes by operating a daily Los Angeles-San Antonio-Chicago train with a connecting San Antonio-New Orleans train. Amtrak has divided their 15 long-distance trains into three groups of five. The five worst performers – including the Sunset and Eagle – will be addressed this year, the middle five in 2011, and the five best – such as the Empire Builder and Southwest Chief – will be tweaked beginning in 2010. The undesirability of tri-weekly service on any route was noted.

“Amtrak seems to be grasping – and willing to emphasize publicly – the importance of their long distance trains. One of the slides in a presentation : ‘Long Distance Trains are Fundamental to Amtrak’s Mission and Future.’ The slide’s charts showed that long distance trains provided 15 percent of Amtrak’s riders, but 24 percent of revenue, and 39 percent of Amtrak’s train miles but 46 percent of passenger miles.”

As promising as this is, it still fails to reflect any understanding of how explosive growth could be if Amtrak were to address two simple questions:

1. What would long distance ridership, passenger miles and revenue be if Amtrak actually added capacity to existing trains, especially in peak periods? Long distance capacity and available seat miles have been flat, if not down, for two decades. Since these trains run nearly full much of the year, no growth is even possible without added capacity.
2. What would long distance ridership, passenger miles and revenue be if Amtrak better interconnected its routes, so that its trains could serve hundreds of new origin-destination city pairs? Examples: extend a Missouri state corridor train to Omaha, to connect St. Louis, Kansas City and intermediate points to the Central Transcontinental Corridor – Denver, Salt Lake City, Reno, Sacramento and the San Francisco Bay area; or, drop a coach and sleeper from the Chief, at Barstow, to run over Tehachapi Pass to Bakersfield, connecting to a San Joaquin, linking the entire Southwest Transcontinental Corridor to the Central Valley and the San Francisco Bay area.

Even if one assumes that these new services perform no better than the known performance of the existing trains, these small increases in operations, by opening up many hundreds of new long distance city pairs, will triple output, and revenue. Now there is a capacity issue, and a growth strategy, all in one.

Volume 6, Number 48

1. Paul Dyson, the Never Say Die President of the Rail Passenger Association of California and Nevada sent yet another love letter to Amtrak Interim President and CEO Joseph Boardman.
   

   5^th December, 2009

   Mr. Joseph H. Boardman
   President and Chief Executive Officer
   NATIONAL RAILROAD PASSENGER CORPORATION
   60 Massachusetts Avenue NE
   Washington DC 20002
   Via Fax to 202 XXX-XXXX (1 pages total)

   MORE UNACCEPTABLE SERVICE FAILURES ON PACIFIC SURFLINER

   Dear Mr. Boardman:

   Once again I must write to you about the catastrophic service failures on the Pacific Surfliner service. As I write hundreds of passengers are stranded by the locomotive failure of train 769 at San Diego. As a result I have been told that 796 from Goleta will be covered by buses this evening even though it would be possible to deadhead a crew to cover the service.

   This is a repeat of the disaster of the day before Thanksgiving when you should have had every available manager and every piece of rolling stock in service. Instead passengers waited for hours for trains that were as much as 6 hours late. There is no excuse for the lack of action by Amtrak. We demand that you:

   • Make arrangements with the commuter operators Metrolink and Coaster to make standby trains available to you, with extra crews available to operate them.
   • Hire in some of the hundreds of idle freight locomotives and put a freight and a passenger locomotive on every train until you have put your own equipment in a state of good repair.
   • Negotiate a power pooling arrangement with the commuter operators.  Many of their locomotives operate only about 30 hours per week.

   We are tired of excuses and inaction. We will be asking for a congressional hearing and state hearings to find out why California is paying so much to Amtrak for corridor service and getting so little in return.

   We look forward to your early response.

   Yours faithfully,

   ORIGINAL SIGNED

   Paul J. Dyson
   President
   pdyson@railpac.org
   818 XXX-XXXX
   cc RailPAC Board , LOSSAN Board, Bill Bronte, Division of Rail

2. Mr. Dyson has perhaps directly targeted finding a solution to Amtrak’s ongoing misadventures. Even though Amtrak top executives directly appear before Congressional committees, they often leave with only a slap on the wrist and business as usual recommences.

   Those with a good understanding of history recall this same type of mischief took place with VIA Rail Canada in the late 1980s. In a parliamentary form of government such as in Canada, it doesn’t take an “act of Congress” to get things done; it only takes a vote in the Prime Minister’s cabinet to institute often drastic actions. That happened with VIA when it was unresponsive to its owner’s (the federal government of Canada) wishes, and ended up with its budget slashed so mercilessly, over half of VIA’s long distance system simply disappeared.

   No one wants to see Amtrak any smaller than it is today, but, at some point, Amtrak’s management must be made to understand they are not operating in a vacuum and they cannot operate on hubris alone in perpetuity.

3. Here is a letter which ended up in This Week at Amtrak’s mailbox this past week; it’s being circulated among over 30 state passenger rail associations. The natives are definitely restless, and the Army seems to be close to being in a state of agitated rebellion. Somebody better make sure the stockade doors at Amtrak are sturdy and can withstand assault.
   

   A Call for Change and National Vision

   An open letter to Amtrak

   We in the rail-passenger advocacy community, along with friends and well-wishers outside the movement, are longtime supporters of expanded and improved rail passenger service in the U.S. As part of our support for passenger trains, we have supported Amtrak, standing by it and defending its funding in good times and bad.

   Now the times have changed, and the temper of our advocacy must change with it. The Obama administration’s embrace of passenger rail, including its unprecedented commitment $8 billion in American Recovery and Reinvestment Act funds, has lifted the nearly four-decade threat against American passenger trains. The breathing space afforded by this sea-change in public policy allows advocates to switch from a posture of defense to a more sober and measured examination of the American passenger train.

   We are deeply concerned by Amtrak’s apparent unwillingness to embrace change, its reluctance to express a national vision and, most of all, its failure to develop a National Growth Plan with annual ridership targets, programmed frequency expansions, openings of new routes, and a major equipment-acquisition program designed both to support and stimulate ridership growth and route expansion.

   Amtrak seems unaware that a transportation revolution is under way in America. The Obama Administration and progressive leaders are now offering Amtrak an opportunity for expansion and growth. Unfortunately, Amtrak continues to be plagued by the same drift, inertia and self-doubt of the past. Indeed, Amtrak president Joseph Boardman himself noted that “there are a whole host of people here who don’t know whether to believe,” implying that people who cannot make the transition will have to leave the company.

   President Boardman must now follow through on his observation.

   Amtrak must realize that if it is to prosper, it must make itself relevant to America’s transportation needs to the point of being indispensable. It must take a proactive role in the design of our national rail passenger system rather than merely executing plans developed and funded by others.

   For the last 30 years Amtrak’s “business plan” has been: “If anybody wants us to run trains we’ll run them—just bring a check.” Outside of the Northeast Corridor, this message has been directed solely to state governments and has resulted in the addition of primarily intra-state trains. There has been no acknowledgment of any interstate route obligations beyond what Amtrak inherited from the private railroads. The company does not acknowledge any obligation to grow the interstate or overnight part of its business and has never designed a blueprint or sought funding for doing so.

   For example, in years past Amtrak could have offered to share the costs of developing a showcase corridor, such as Chicago-St. Louis, to demonstrate to Congress and to other regions of the nation how a properly designed, funded and operated passenger-rail service could stimulate economic growth in the communities it served. It could have advocated the development of such a service between Chicago and Florida, or between booming city pairs in the underserved Sun Belt, such as Phoenix and Los Angeles, or Dallas and Houston. Such a success would have led to calls for more service elsewhere, ensuring a better future for Amtrak, while blunting calls for its demise.

   But Amtrak never displayed the necessary initiative, and its absence did not go unnoticed by Amtrak’s adversaries as they subjected the company to one shutdown scenario after another.

   It is time for Amtrak to be its own best advocate, as well as the advocate for the traveling public and for passenger trains themselves. It can only strike the public as odd that while the president, the congressional leadership, the advocacy community and dozens of state departments of transportation call for a passenger-rail buildup, Amtrak itself is silent.

   A good first step for Amtrak to begin embracing the future would be through the placement of an equipment order large enough to allow system and frequency expansion. The company’s current request for a 130-car order of new Viewliner II single-level cars and an option for 70 more cars, while praiseworthy, shows no vision for the future and ignores present and future capacity needs. This order will do little more than replace old, worn-out equipment. It will not allow for any meaningful expansion. To its credit, Amtrak recently proposed an additional 500- car order for new, standardized coaches, but these cars will only replace worn out Amfleet cars running primarily on the Northeast Corridor. It ignores the needs of the Superliner fleet and does nothing to address the need for new routes and additional frequencies on existing routes.

   When the ARRA funds suddenly became available in 2009, Amtrak didn’t even have a wish list ready and is only now belatedly beginning to talk about a large-scale acquisition program. Amtrak needs to get started on that list now. But, it must do more than propose an order for cars or locomotives. Priority should also be given to route planning and expansion. It should develop a real vision for expansion of the current Amtrak system, laying the foundation for a truly national network. The “Grid and Gateway” proposal by the National Association of Railroad Passengers represents an excellent start.

   Amtrak needs to evangelize governors, mayors, chambers of commerce, major colleges and universities and regional economic-development authorities about the good news robust train service can bring. It must champion trains nationally and regionally and lobby Congress for a national budget sufficient to support multi-state route expansions. It must court Congress, the Obama Administration, states, local leaders and others to promote its own survival and prosperity by developing plans for expansion that do not depend solely on the largesse of state legislatures. If Amtrak fails to do this, its relevance will continue to be a question in the minds of many.

   Apologists may plead that Amtrak has had to fight just to stay alive and has no “juice” to support a culture of growth. But even in a hostile environment – which all private businesses and public-sector agencies encounter at one time or another – real leaders continue to prepare plans and wish lists, float trial balloons and put together pilot projects to demonstrate a concept and build public support for more ambitious programs.

   We in the advocacy community have supported and defended Amtrak over the decades, but that support is conditional. If Amtrak wants our continued support, it will have to change, and soon. Amtrak must embrace the future, and if that means separating itself from those who feel comfortable only with the past, so be it. Nothing less will be acceptable. We are committed to the creation of a truly national rail passenger system by all possible means, whether it’s through Amtrak or some other approach.

   The time to build a national passenger-rail system is now and Amtrak must become proactive and forward-thinking or risk its own demise.

   Here is the only proper response to this letter: Amen.

   At last word, less than a half dozen state passenger rail associations have summoned the collective intestinal fortitude to endorse this letter. Many seem content to continue to do nothing and metaphorically play the fiddle while Amtrak burns around them.

   Now is not the time for cowardice; now is the time for action. If you are an active member of a state passenger rail association, demand your association not only endorse this letter, but begin to take action to force Amtrak to live up to its obligations to every American.

   As long as Amtrak management thinks it can continue to feed at the public trough and not have to worry about support, then it will continue to operate as it does today with managers more worried about hanging on long enough to collect their pensions rather than creating and growing a national passenger rail system which is robust and viable.

   Make it your personal New Year’s resolution to make Amtrak accountable to you and every other taxpayer in America. If we’re going to spend public money to keep Amtrak going, then we should be realizing a public benefit.

4. More from Ken Orski at Innovation NewsBriefs. This is Volume 20, Number 23; further information is available at www.innobriefs.com.
   

   December 5, 2009

   The Selling of Transportation Reform

   A small but influential group of individuals gathered recently at the downtown Washington office of University of Virginia’s Miller Center of Public Affairs at the invitation of its Director, former Virginia Gov. Gerald Baliles. The bipartisan group included two former U.S. Transportation Secretaries and some 30 key players and opinion leaders who constitute what could be loosely described as Washington’s permanent transportation policy establishment.

   The purpose of the meeting was to solicit advice on a set of recommendations stemming from the Miller Center’s transportation conference (see, “Reconsidering the Current Paradigm: Notes from the Miller Center Transportation Conference,” NewsBrief, September 17, 2009). While the discussion dealt with a number of discrete issues to be addressed in the report, the central challenge was posed succinctly by Gov. Baliles at the outset of the meeting. The transportation sector, he suggested, is being neglected despite the evidence of a mounting crisis – aging infrastructure, growing traffic congestion, strained freight and logistical facilities. Both the Congress and the Administration are extemporizing rather than taking bold steps to avert the looming crisis. Where is the outrage? Baliles asked. Why is there no popular outcry? And what can we do to overcome this inertia? How can we create a sense of urgency and develop a narrative that will reverberate with the public, capture the media’s attention and goad Congress and the Administration into action? The Governor’s conclusion: we must involve “the three Ps”: the Public, the Press and the Politicians.

   What follows is some reflections stimulated by the Miller Center discussion. Specifically, can we sell the notion that continued inaction on the transportation front is placing the nation at risk? Can we elevate the need for greater transportation investment and program reform to a higher priority on the nation’s policy and legislative agenda? And how can we rally the public, the press and the politicians to support these goals?

   The Public

   Does the public perceive a genuine “transportation crisis?” Opinions differ. While catastrophic failures such as the bridge collapse in the Twin Cities are a powerful reminder of the need for constant vigilance, such dramatic failures are happily few and far between. The public does not necessarily share the transportation officials’ sense of urgency or alarm about “crumbling infrastructure.” The Minneapolis bridge collapse is a fading memory. And while the severity of metropolitan traffic congestion and its adverse impact on the economy and people’s lives are readily acknowledged, the driving public has grown skeptical that more money or program reform will bring effective congestion relief. Perhaps they have come to accept the truth of the oft-repeated skeptical refrain that “you cannot build your way out of traffic congestion.” What is more, traffic congestion leaves vast stretches of rural and small-town America unaffected and unconcerned. As one participant pointed out, the average nationwide commute time of 25.5 minutes has not increased for the past eight years according to Bureau of the Census data. Traffic congestion may be of great concern to many individual communities, but it is not necessarily perceived as a “crisis” deserving national attention.

   Contrast this with the strong public support for climate change action. Until recently, at least, the need to curb greenhouse gas emissions received substantial public support. (This support has reportedly declined precipitously in the wake of  “Climategate” – the recent disclosure of climate data manipulation at the U.K.’s Climate Research Unit.) The issue resonated strongly with the public because global warming was perceived as a potentially catastrophic threat to mankind (“planet in peril”). Traffic congestion and an occasional bridge collapse have not reached – and we doubt they will ever reach – the same level of concern and apprehension (or mass hysteria, depending on your point of view.)

   We offer the above arguments not to refute the need for action, but to suggest that they provide a plausible explanation why there has been no public outcry about the stalled transportation authorization and no groundswell of public demand for a reform of the transportation program.

   Supporting a Transportation Vision

   If evoking an impending transportation crisis is not a convincing way to gain public support, could an appeal to the people’s sense of vision be more effective? After all, America’s transportation history has been marked by a series of ambitious transportation initiatives – Erie Canal and the transcontinental railroad in the 19th century, the Interstate Highway System, the urban rail transit networks and the air navigation system in the 20th century. Can’t public support be rallied around a bold new transportation infrastructure agenda suitable for the 21st century? The positive reception given to President Obama’s high speed rail initiative would suggest that a new transportation vision can still capture the public imagination. And if a giant new infrastructure program on the scale of the Interstate Highway Program no longer is financially feasible, could one not enlist public support for a more modest capital program that could still enhance the nation’s infrastructure and contribute to economic growth? The answer, we believe, is a tentative “yes” – provided, as one participant noted, that the infrastructure plan is presented as a collection of tangible projects that could capture the public’s imagination, rather than vague and poorly understood promises “to improve transportation performance.”

   The Press

   The popular press and mass media can be captivated by and serve as an effective communicator of bold new transportation visions – especially ones with a high technological content. The daily press and television also can effectively dramatize and draw public attention to spectacular transportation failures such as a bridge collapse or traffic gridlock. But the media’s attention span is short and its ability to stay on subject is limited by a constantly shifting news focus. Moreover, many of the issues central to transportation reform are considered as too arcane by newspaper editors and editorial writers to be of interest to the general public. Trade and “niche” publications do provide more depth but their outreach and influence are limited to the client groups they serve. In principle, the blogosphere could serve as a useful educational tool. However, constituency-driven blogs are often tendentious and advocacy-driven. To properly inform and educate public opinion requires a flow of accurate information, diverse views and impartial  analysis. Most blogs do not meet this test. We are left with a conclusion that getting one’s message across will require a sophisticated outreach strategy that includes ability to connect with opinion makers outside the traditional communication channels.

   The Politicians

   There are several explanations for the delayed plans to enact a transportation bill and more generally for transportation’s relatively low standing on the list of Congressional and Administration priorities. The most obvious reason is the already crowded Obama policy agenda and the importance of the competing priorities of health care overhaul, the challenge of job creation, financial regulatory reform, and climate change.

   Deficit Financing and Higher Taxes Are Off the Table

   Contributing to the legislative inertia on the transportation front is the Administration’s reluctance to use deficit financing or raising taxes to support expensive new government initiatives. Administration officials have signaled that the President’s focus next year will bear heavily on bringing the deficit down. This mindset is matched on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers are conscious of the political and economic danger of increasing the national debt and reluctant in an election year to consider measures that would add to the soaring deficit. As one participant remarked, the political community refuses to buy into the crisis scenario or admit there is an infrastructure problem. Or else the problem is not viewed as serious enough to warrant additional deficit spending.

   There is an equal reluctance to consider tax increases. Proposals to enhance the Highway Trust fund revenue by raising the gas tax – to the extent such proposals are still heard these days – are coming from interested stakeholder groups and lobbyists rather than from the grassroots. And those meet with a skeptical reception on Capitol Hill, a bare 12 months before mid-term congressional elections. One telling indication has been the unwillingness of the House Ways and Means Committee to consider a tax hike to fund Rep. Oberstar’s proposed $500 billion surface transportation bill.

   Suggestions as to other sources of funding – such as a National Infrastructure Bank or  a federal capital budget, mileage  (VMT) fees and financial transaction fees – have likewise met with deep congressional and White House skepticism.

   Short-term vs. Long-term funding

   To be sure, there exists a possibility of a short-term infusion of funds in the context of a new job creation initiative. Highway and transit interests have seized on the White House “jobs summit” on December 3 to push for an $84 billion package of “ready-to-go” projects, and the House is readying a jobs bill that would provide up to $70 billion for “shovel-ready” infrastructure projects and aid to small business. However, this places transportation advocates in a quandary. They need to be part of the current job creation dialogue in order to stake out a claim to any stimulus funds that might be forthcoming. However, any short-term infusion of funds will remove – or at least seriously reduce – congressional urgency to act upon the larger need for strategic investment in transportation infrastructure aiming to promote long-term economic growth. This dilemma was evident in President Obama’s remarks at the jobs summit. What’s good in the long term, Obama is reported to have said, may not necessarily work as an immediate short term jobs stimulus, currently the Administration’s paramount objective. There are tensions in the process of allocating infrastructure spending, he said, between immediate “shovel-ready” projects as opposed to long-term visionary projects. He intimated that the short-term goal to spur job growth would take priority in choosing projects over the long term need for strategic infrastructure investment. But some observers have raised questions whether even immediate “ready-to-go” transportation projects, such as pavement re-surfacing and highway beautification, create new jobs or merely keep existing  DOT and contractor road crews fully occupied.

   The Clouded Future

   Thus, the prospect for an early enactment of a reform-oriented multi-year surface transportation authorization remains murky. Rep. James Oberstar (D-MN), chairman of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, has abandoned his quest to enact a six-year $500 billion bill by the end of the year in the face of continued Senate and House leadership opposition. Instead, he announced during a press conference on December 2, that he would agree to a six-month extension of the existing program, provided that there is an agreed upon time line for enacting a longer-term authorization. One possibility could be a staged process consisting of a two-year “front-loaded” transportation bill focused on job creation, followed by a longer-term bill containing broad policy reforms. However, at this point, the constantly shifting dynamics concerning the need for and type of a jobs stimulus makes any predictions about congressional action at the expiration of the current short-term extension on December 18 a mere speculation. Only one thing is certain: getting the lawmakers to enact an ambitious long-term surface transportation program in the tax- and deficit-averse political climate of an election year would be an uphill struggle.

5. And, on this final note, this missive arrived at This Week at Amtrak. Good thoughts for all to consider from Evan Stair of Passenger Rail Oklahoma.
   

   I thought you might like to take a look at the new Amtrak 2009 national route map. Isn’t it pretty? I especially like the photograph of the train crossing at the top. Look at the inclusion of all those magnificent buses that flesh out the system… making it look twice as large as it really is.

   Oops… I guess someone forgot to tell the cartographer to remove the New Orleans to Florida segment of the Sunset Limited… Oh… excuse me? I guess Amtrak considers this just a “service disruption” so it has a rightful place on the map?

   Seriously, several questions come to mind:

   1. If this IS just a service disruption, then why did they have to study its restoration? Why not just start operating it again?
   2. Since this is just a “service restoration” why did Amtrak see a need to study alternatives to its pre-Katrina operation?
   3. Since this is a federally funded route disruption, shouldn’t the financing of the restoration match that of its pre-Katrina operation? It seems that Katrina erased everything but the red ink on the National map.

   Needless to say, the four-year-and-counting “service disruption” and inclusion of an operational line on the Amtrak system map that has not operated for four years should be a source of embarrassment to Amtrak. In fact, it is false advertising. This map is displayed in Amtrak depots across the nation; possibly even travel agencies. It is included within travel planners and timetables. Fortunately, travel planners and timetables explain the situation. However, where is the disclaimer on the system map?

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1. Today is the Tuesday before the Wednesday before Thanksgiving, and Wednesday is considered by everyone to be just about the busiest travel day of the year, even in times of recession.

   Once again, Amtrak is making its usual Herculean effort on the Northeast Corridor to shuttle holiday travelers between Washington, New York City, and Boston.

   This year, there are also some additional services on the West Coast in California, and some extra goodies elsewhere.

   However, once again, there is a notable lack of beefing up of long distance trains throughout the nation; Amtrak apparently feels only people on the Left Coast and Right Coast, north of Virginia, celebrate Thanksgiving, and the rest of the country – as usual – are left to fend for themselves for holiday travel.

   Part of the problem is Amtrak’s lack of equipment, due to its deliberate plan to keep as much long distance equipment as possible out of service to save on maintenance costs. Never mind the revenue lost or new passengers to be served; Amtrak managers only receive recognition and bonuses on money saved, not money spent to improve the company’s core financial position.

2. All of that aside, it is important to pay respect to all of the Amtrak employees who will be working long and hard on Wednesday and Thursday, and throughout the holiday weekend taking care of their passengers. Amtrak is still a 365 day a year operation, and no matter that it’s Thanksgiving, Christmas Day, or any other holiday, dedicated Amtrak employees are out on the road, manning ticket windows in stations, cleaning cars in coach yards, and refueling locomotives all over the country, and we thank them for taking care of our needs while they are away from home and their families.
3. You may want to glance again at the date of this missive; one month from today is Christmas Eve. Finished your shopping, yet?
4. Thanksgiving also marks another milestone: Amtrak Interim President and CEO Joseph Boardman marks the completion of his single year contract this week as Amtrak’s chief steward. Since no announcements have been made to the contrary, everyone can only assume his one year contract has been extended …

   William Lindley of Scottsdale, Arizona has some thoughts on the subject.

   By William Lindley

   Those  of you who held General Motors shares and now hold the converted “Motors Liquidation Company” will be pleased (sarcasm alert) to know that according to their website, at the end of the bankruptcy proceedings, it is the Company’s expectation your remaining interest in “common stock will have no value.”

   We could argue who was to blame for GM’s failure – the unions? the management? the corporate culture? too much government regulation? not enough government assistance? – but the crux of the matter is,  the board of directors – and particularly the president – are ultimately responsible for a corporation’s performance. It was the board’s, and the president’s, responsibility to either guide the company to stability, or advise the stockholders far in advance of an impending failure. The board, and particularly the president, failed to do so.

   No-one should be much interested in placing blame now, though; words have little value, results have much.

   By the same token, we expect interim Amtrak president Joseph Boardman to be clear about his company’s future. Many of us have heard him speak, with positive impressions. Yet the results that matter – reports stuffed with lackluster, unimaginative excuses instead of positive plans for restoring furloughed routes or opening new ones – ultimately rest under his watch. The failure to order equipment sufficient even to maintain current routes, ultimately rests under his watch.

   Look out your window. Do you see a tree or a shrub? It is doing one of two things – growing or dying. There is no middle ground, there is never stagnation. A business is the same way. Grow, or die.

   Is it Amtrak’s intention simply to go gentle into the good night? If not, where is the bold plan, where is the vision for growth?  Eagerly, we await.

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