1. Good ideas never go bad, they just sometimes are put on a shelf.

   Over a full decade ago in 1998, the late Adrian Herzog, Ph.D., one of the original bright lights of United Rail Passenger Alliance, compiled a long term plan for the expansion of Amtrak.

   Dr. Herzog, who by profession was a rocket scientist and university physics department chair professor, died far too young of a heart attack at his home in Northridge, California in February of 2001 at the age of 52.

   Outside of the classroom, Dr. Herzog was a business partner with the late Byron Nordberg, also an original bright light of URPA. Dr. Herzog and retired United States Marine Corps Colonel Nordberg were the proprietors of NHA, Inc., a highly successful rail consulting firm based in Oceanside, California. NHA was the engine which brought the UTDC (now Bombardier) bi-level commuter passenger cars to Southern California for both Metrolink and the Coaster services. A very young Noel Braymer, now editor of the Western Rail Passenger Review and luminary in California passenger rail circles, and also an early associate of URPA, worked with Colonel Nordberg and Dr. Herzog.

   The amount of work coming from Dr. Herzog was nearly unparalleled. He was one of the first, using early desktop computers, to create computer modeling for Amtrak passenger trains to measure performance and successfully predict future needs. Much of Dr. Herzog’s work has been featured on URPA’s web site, www.unitedrail.org and remains today as relevant as when it was created. Perhaps one of Dr. Herzog’s greatest accomplishments was the creation of the matrix theory, demonstrating how hubbing and end point connections are critical to the success of any passenger rail system.

2. One of the documents left by the untimely death of Dr. Herzog in this writer’s care was his plan of how a successful Amtrak would look in 2010, based on several presumptions made for 2000. Alas, those presumptions were not to be at that time, but it is fascinating to see Dr. Herzog’s vision for the future of Amtrak.

   Dr. Herzog believed passenger rail was viable on three levels: as a carrier of leisure travelers, as a carrier of regional travelers moving about for any number of reasons, and as a carrier of business travelers seeking an efficient way to travel making the best use of their time in trips under five hours. Remember, in 1998 when this plan was conceived, things like Wi-Fi connections were not yet common, laptop computers were still bulky and heavy, and cellular telephones were in use by a far smaller percentage of the population.

   Dr. Herzog and Colonel Nordberg also believed in two basic principles. First, every route should have at least three frequencies, and more if viable. One frequency would be as existing, a second frequency would follow six to 12 hours later so every city or town would have service at marketable times, and a third frequency mimicking the old milk run local trains, where every station had a stop. As you look at Dr. Herzog’s plan below, and see a train with a route name such as the North Coast Limited, imagine a flip schedule train such as the Mainstreeter providing the second frequency, and perhaps another named train for the local.

   In some instances, the local train may better serve the route by being a series of shorter trains, such as on the Southern Crescent route between Washington, D.C. and New Orleans, where two separate day trains may provide the best level of service versus one longer train, by providing one train operating between Washington, D.C. and Atlanta, and a second day train operating between Atlanta and New Orleans. The first two trains, the Southern Crescent and the (to pick a name) Peach Queen would run the entire route, and the two day trains serve as the “local” option on two separate ends of the route.

   Second, they believed passenger train routes did not always have to be in a straight line. They both favored “L” shaped routes where possible, such as taking the Lake Shore Limited from New York City to Chicago, and extending the western terminus of this train south to Memphis, Tennessee to make maximum use of equipment, and build as many city pair combinations as possible into the matrix theory.

   Dr. Herzog’s plan focused primarily on a robust long distance network. Some of today’s short distance trains would be replaced by long distance trains (more efficient in many ways), but some regional services as we know them today would continue. Since this was a broad blueprint, many of the minor, regional services were not mentioned, but Dr. Herzog implied each would be retained based on productivity and cost.

3. Here is Dr. Herzog’s plan, with some updates for changes which have taken place in the last 11 years.
   

   Strategic Routes for Amtrak

   A Planning Document

   October 25, 1998 • Updated 2008

   Prepared by Dr. Adrian Herzog, URPA • Northridge, California

   Strategic Goal: Output equal to five times the revenue passenger miles produced in FY 2000, achieved by Year 7 of the strategic plan.

   This document was originally prepared by the late Adrian Herzog, Ph.D. in October 1998, and updated a decade later in 2008. The breadth of the document demonstrates the foresight of Dr. Herzog in his quest to make passenger rail in his adopted country subsidy-free.

   The planning concepts for this document came from several sources, including historic successful passenger train routes and connectivity points, current travel patterns in the United States for both leisure and business travel, and travel to and from major vacation destinations. As an example, more travelers come to New Orleans from Houston, Texas than any other location.

   Other factors taken into consideration are population shifts and population growth in new areas, military installations, and locations of major colleges and universities. Additional factors, such as cruise ship terminals were also considered.

   Tactical Goal: Maximize network density of flow by maximizing route inter-connectivity, and multiple frequency (2 to 4) trains per route, per day.

   National Corridors

   • Southern Transcontinental Corridor
   • Southwest Transcontinental Corridor
   • Central Transcontinental Corridor
   • Northern Transcontinental Corridor
   • Atlantic Coast Corridor
   • Pacific Coast Corridor
   • Southwest Corridor
   • Central California Corridor
   • Pacific Northwest Corridor
   • Chicago-Midwest Corridors
   • Florida Corridor
   • Gulf Coast Corridor
   • Texas Triangle
   • International links to Canada and Mexico
   • Northeast Corridor low level long distance trains

   Equipment Types

   Superliner Service

   California Car Service

   Use of the successful daylight California Car/Superliner compatible bi-level equipment for non-overnight trains

   Talgo Service

   Viewliner Service

   Conversion of existing fleet single level cars. This Includes: Viewliner, Amfleet, and Horizon

   Power Types

   • Genesis (Long distance trains)
   • F59PH (Corridors)
   • AEM-7 (NEC Long distance trains)

   Crew Bases

   • Seattle
   • San Jose
   • Los Angeles
   • San Diego
   • Denver
   • Fort Worth
   • Chicago
   • New Orleans
   • Tampa
   • Sanford (Auto Train T&E only)
   • Miami
   • Charlotte
   • Newport News
   • Norfolk
   • Philadelphia
   • Boston
   • Vancouver/VIA Rail Canada

   Maintenance Bases and Principal Commissaries

   • Vancouver, British Columbia/VIA Rail Canada
   • Seattle
   • Eugene, Oregon
   • San Jose
   • Los Angeles
   • San Diego
   • Denver
   • Fort Worth
   • Chicago
   • New Orleans
   • Tampa
   • Sanford (Auto Train/racks only)
   • Miami
   • Charlotte
   • Newport News
   • Philadelphia
   • Boston

   Turn Maintenance and Commissary Support

   • Vancouver, British Columbia/VIA Rail Canada
   • Toronto/VIA Rail Canada
   • Montreal/VIA Rail Canada
   • Boston
   • Washington
   • Lorton
   • Newport News
   • Norfolk
   • Cleveland
   • Detroit
   • Chicago
   • Eugene, Oregon
   • Seattle
   • San Francisco
   • Lancaster, California
   • Redding, California
   • Reno
   • Santa Barbara
   • Las Vegas
   • Nogales
   • Duluth
   • Kansas City
   • St. Louis
   • Memphis
   • Birmingham
   • Charleston, South Carolina

   Southern Transcontinental Corridor

   Sunset Limited	Los Angeles, Tucson, El Paso, San Antonio, Houston, New Orleans, Jacksonville Orlando, Tampa	Superliner Service
   Golden State	Los Angeles, Phoenix, Tucson, El Paso, Abilene, Fort Worth, Dallas, St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Toronto	Superliner Service
   Southern Crescent	New Orleans, Atlanta, Washington, DC	Superliner Service
   Gulf Breeze	New Orleans, Mobile, Montgomery, Birmingham, Atlanta, Washington, DC, Philadelphia, New York, Boston	Viewliner Service
   Gulf Wind	Houston, New Orleans, Mobile, Pensacola, Tallahassee, Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa	Superliner Service
   Continental	Los Angeles, Phoenix, Tucson, El Paso, Abilene, Fort Worth, Dallas, Atlanta, Washington, DC	Superliner Service

   Southwest Transcontinental Corridor

   Southwest Chief/Capitol Limited	Los Angeles, Albuquerque, Kansas City, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Washington DC, Newport News	Superliner Service
   San Francisco Chief	San Jose, Oakland, Bakersfield, Albuquerque, Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago	Superliner Service
   Grand Canyon Limited	Los Angeles, Albuquerque, Denver	Superliner Service
   Zia	Denver, Albuquerque, Las Cruces, El Paso	Superliner Service
   El Capitan	Chicago, Kansas City, Flagstaff, Phoenix, Tucson	Superliner Service

   Central Transcontinental Corridor

   California Zephyr	Los Angeles, San Jose, Oakland, Reno, Salt Lake City, Provo, Denver, Chicago	Superliner Service
   Overland Limited	Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Provo, Salt Lake City, Ogden, Laramie, Denver, Omaha, Chicago, Cleveland, Boston	Superliner Service
   Pioneer Zephyr	Vancouver BC, Seattle, Portland, Ogden, Salt Lake City, Provo, Denver, Newton, Oklahoma City, Fort Worth, Dallas, Houston, New Orleans	Superliner Service
   George Washington	Kansas City, St. Louis, Louisville, Cincinnati, Charleston WV, Charlottesville, Richmond, Newport News	Superliner Service
   Cavalier	Fort Worth, Dallas, Little Rock, Memphis, Chattanooga, Knoxville, Roanoke, Lynchburg, Charlottesville, Washington	Superliner Service
   The Memphian	Fort Worth, Dallas, Little Rock, Memphis, Nashville, Louisville, Cincinnati, Charleston WV, Charlottesville, Richmond, Newport News	Superliner Service

   Northern Transcontinental Corridor

   Empire Builder	Vancouver BC, Seattle, Yakima, Spokane, Minneapolis, Chicago, Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Newport News	Superliner Service
   North Coast Limited	Seattle, Spokane, Missoula, Butte, Bozeman, Billings, Bismarck, Minneapolis, Chicago	Superliner Service
   Hiawatha	Eugene, Portland, Spokane, Minneapolis, Chicago	Superliner Service
   Broadway Limited/Three Rivers	Duluth, Minneapolis, Chicago, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, New York, Boston	Viewliner Service
   Pennsylvanian	Kansas City, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Philadelphia	Viewliner Service
   New England States	St. Louis, Chicago, Toledo, Cleveland, Buffalo, Albany, Springfield, Boston	Viewliner Service
   Pacemaker	Chicago, Toledo, Cleveland, Buffalo, Albany, New York, Philadelphia	Viewliner Service
   Lake Shore Limited	Memphis, Chicago, Toledo, Cleveland, Buffalo, Albany, New York, Boston	Viewliner Service
   Steeler	St. Louis, Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, Harrisburg, Philadelphia Crew Base: Philadelphia	Viewliner Service
   Columbian	Denver, Chicago, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Washington DC, Newport News	Viewliner Service
   Oriental	Vancouver BC, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Minneapolis, Chicago, Detroit, Toronto (Seasonal)	Viewliner Service

   Atlantic Seaboard Corridor

   Silver Meteor	Miami, Orlando, Jacksonville, Charleston, Rocky Mount, Richmond, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, St. Albans, Montreal	Viewliner Service
   Silver Star	Miami, Ocala, Jacksonville, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, Boston	Viewliner Service
   The Sunland	Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, Boston	Viewliner Service
   Everglades	Miami, Daytona Beach, Jacksonville, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, Buffalo, Toronto	Viewliner Service
   Auto Train, (Passenger section)	Tampa, Orlando, Sanford, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Rocky Mount, Richmond, Lorton, Washington, Pittsburgh, Cleveland (All station stops)	Superliner Service
   Auto Train	Sanford, Lorton	Car carrier section
   City of New Orleans	Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Mobile, New Orleans, Chicago, Detroit, Toronto	Superliner Service
   City of Miami	Miami, Orlando, Jacksonville, Charleston SC, Rocky Mount, Richmond, Charlottesville, Charleston WV, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Chicago	Superliner Service
   Flamingo	Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Savannah, Macon, Atlanta	California Car Service
   Silver Comet	Miami, West Palm Beach, Daytona Beach, Jacksonville, Savannah, Macon. Atlanta, Birmingham	Superliner Service
   The Resort Special	Miami, West Palm Beach, Daytona Beach, Jacksonville, Savannah, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, Boston	Viewliner Service
   Champion	Miami, West Palm Beach, Daytona Beach, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Rocky Mount, Richmond, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, Long Island	Viewliner Service
   Gulf Coast Special	Tampa, Orlando, Jacksonville, Savannah, Charleston, Rocky Mount, Richmond, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, Long Island
   Tidewater	Charleston, Florence, Fayetteville, Rocky Mount, Franklin, Suffolk, Norfolk	California Car Service
   Piedmont	Charlotte, Raleigh, Rocky Mount, Franklin, Suffolk, Norfolk	California Car Service
   Southern States	Tampa, Ocala, Jacksonville, Savannah, Columbia, Hamlet, Charlotte	California Car Service
   Palmland	Miami, West Palm Beach, Orlando, Jacksonville, Savannah, Columbia, Hamlet, Charlotte, High Point, Greensboro, Danville, Charlottesville, Washington, Philadelphia, New York, Boston	Viewliner Service
   Rue Orleans	New Orleans, Mobile, Montgomery, Birmingham, Nashville, Louisville, Cincinnati, Columbus, Cleveland, Buffalo, Syracuse, Montreal	Superliner Service
   Southwind	Miami, Orlando, Jacksonville, Savannah, Columbia, Raleigh, Richmond, Washington, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Toledo, Detroit	Superliner Service

   Pacific Coast Corridor

   Coast Starlight	Los Angeles, San Jose, Oakland, Sacramento, Eugene, Portland, Seattle	Superliner Service
   Shasta Daylight	Los Angeles, Bakersfield, Fresno, Sacramento, Eugene, Portland, Seattle, Vancouver BC	Superliner Service
   Columbia Starlight	Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Provo, Salt Lake, Ogden, Pocatello, Portland, Seattle	Superliner Service

   Southwest Corridor

   Pacific Surfliners	San Diego, Los Angeles, Santa Barbara, San Jose, San Francisco	Joint Talgo and California Car Service
   High Desert	San Diego, Los Angeles, Palmdale, Lancaster	California Car Service
   Las Vegans/South	San Diego, Santa Ana, Riverside, San Bernardino, Barstow, Las Vegas	Talgo Service
   Las Vegans/North	Santa Barbara, Los Angeles, El Monte, San Bernardino, Las Vegas	Talgo Service
   Arizonan	Los Angeles, Riverside, Palm Springs, Indio, Yuma, Phoenix, Tucson, Nogales	Talgo Service
   Grand Canyon	Nogales, Tucson, Phoenix, Williams Junction, Grand Canyon	Talgo Service

   Central California Corridor

   San Joaquins I	San Jose, Oakland, Fresno, Bakersfield, San Bernardino, Santa Ana, San Diego	California Car Service
   San Joaquins II	Bakersfield, Fresno, Sacramento, Redding	California Car Service
   Capitols	San Jose, Oakland, Sacramento, Reno	Joint Talgo and California Car Service

   Pacific Northwest Corridor

   Cascades

   Eugene, Portland, Seattle, Vancouver BC

   Talgo Service

   Chicago-Midwest Corridors

   Train of the Saints	St. Paul (Minneapolis), La Crosse, Galesburg, Fort Madison, St. Louis	California Car Service
   The Motor City	Kansas City, St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit	California Car Service
   The Midwesterner	Omaha, Chicago, Cleveland	California Car Service
   The Brewer	Minneapolis, Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit	California Car Service
   The City of Nashville	Chicago, Indianapolis, Louisville, Nashville	California Car Service

   Florida Corridor

   Seminole	Pensacola, Tallahassee, Jacksonville	California Car Service
   Tampa Bay	Jacksonville, Orlando, Tampa	California Car Service
   Henry Flagler	Jacksonville, Daytona Beach, West Palm Beach, Miami	California Car Service
   Citrus State	Jacksonville, Ocala, West Palm Beach, Miami	California Car Service
   Florida Palm	Tampa, West Palm Beach, Miami	California Car Service

   Gulf Coast Corridor

   Gulf Coast Limited	Houston, New Orleans, Mobile	California Car Service
   Iron Mountain	New Orleans, Mobile, Montgomery, Birmingham	California Car Service
   Louisiana Eagle	New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Shreveport, Dallas, Fort Worth	California Car Service

   Texas Triangle

   Texan

   Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin, San Antonio, Houston, Dallas

   California Car Service

   Northeast Corridor (Extended Service Area, in addition to NEC Acela and Regional Service)

   Mid Atlantic	Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington DC, Richmond, Newport News	Viewliner Service
   Maple Leaf/Montrealer	Boston, Albany, Toronto, and New York, Albany, Montreal (Cross Platform at Albany)	Viewliner Service
   Royal Blue	Newport News, Washington DC, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York, Long Island	Viewliner Service
   Bostonian	Boston, New York, Allentown, Harrisburg	Viewliner Service
   Shenandoan	Boston, New York, Philadelphia, Washington, Charlottesville, Cincinnati	Viewliner Service

   * Note: Viewliner Service implies any low level conventional long distance and intermediate distance trains including Amfleet, Horizon, and Viewliner

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Here is what the news media doesn’t know:

• There are four or more types of passenger trains, all with different uses and functions, even though to the untrained eye they look similar. Subways are trains which travel mostly underground, make frequent stops, and stay within metropolitan areas. Subways are populated by commuters, and are a part of transit systems. Light rail is another form of transit for commuters, with the same parameters as subways, but above ground. Commuter rail is usually above ground, and goes from suburbs to inner cities. Commuter trains often share train stations and terminals with Amtrak trains. The primary passengers on commuter trains are those going to and from work, or going from a bedroom community in a suburb to an inner city location. Rarely do commuter trains travel more than 75 or 100 miles in the most extreme cases. Short distance/regional passenger trains have longer routes than commuter trains, and are operated by Amtrak, which is the trade name for the NRPC, the National Railroad Passenger Corporation, a semi-public company which is controlled by the United States Department of Transportation and the Federal Railroad Administration. Short distance/regional/corridor passenger trains travel an average route of 300 miles or less, and usually operate only during daytime or evening hours before midnight. Long distance/intercity passenger trains travel long distances between cities and states, and are also operated by Amtrak. These trains usually have full service dining cars (restaurants), lounge cars (bars), coaches (cars with seating only), and sleeping cars which have private rooms with seats, beds, and private lavatories. Some short distance and most long distance trains also have baggage cars which carry excess baggage/luggage, and, in some cases, express shipments of small packages.
• Most commuter trains, short distance trains, and long distance trains all have locomotives and passenger cars. Some commuter trains have self-propelled passenger cars, with no separate locomotives. A locomotive, or engine, as it is commonly referred to, is not considered one of the cars of the train, because it is the motive power, not a trailing car being pulled by a locomotive.
• The people who operate trains all have separate and distinctive titles. The person who runs the locomotive, or “drives” the train is the locomotive engineer. An engineer is not called a “driver,” the same way you would not call an airline pilot a “driver” of an airplane. On trips of greater than four hours, a second person is in the cab of the locomotive along with the engineer, and this person is called the assistant engineer. The person who is in charge of the operation of the train, when it does or doesn’t move, and carries all legal authority, is the train’s conductor. There are also assistance conductors. The engineer takes instructions from the conductor. On freight trains, the conductor rides in the cab of the locomotive, but on a passenger train, the conductor rides in the passenger area of the train and communicates with the engineer via hand-held radio. There are also a number of onboard service employees working in various places on each train. Coaches have car or coach attendants, which assist passenger boarding or leaving the train (entraining or detraining), and in some instances provide at-seat service. Sleeping cars have sleeping car attendants which assist passengers in every way, from making beds to providing room service to handling luggage. In dining cars, there is a chef, and a dining car steward who is in charge of the diner. There are also dining car service attendants, which is another names for wait staff. Lounge cars have lounge service attendants (bartenders).
• Local passenger train stations are manned by station agents (the person in charge), ticket agents, and baggage handlers. In some Amtrak stations, there is no full-time staff, and part-time station caretakers open and lock the station facility before trains arrive and after trains depart. These people do not handle money or sell tickets.
• When a train hits a car or truck where a road or highway crosses a railroad track (the train, by federal law, ALWAYS exclusively has the right of way), that is called a grade crossing accident. These accidents, which can be fatal for automobile and truck drivers and passengers, usually do little damage to the locomotive or rest of the train, unless the train hits a large truck such as a dump truck or 18-wheel truck. In those instances, the impact of the train hitting such a solid object can cause the train to jump the track, which is called a derailment.
• The speed of each train is dictated by a combinati0n of factors as set by federal law. State and local jurisdictions have no control over the speed of any train at any time. A combination of the condition of the track a train is running on, to what standard that track is maintained, and surrounding environmental conditions dictate how fast a passenger or freight train may travel. As an example, a passenger train running through rural areas or closely protected track may operate as fast as 79 miles per hour (90 miles per hour with certain track safety systems installed), but that same train operating through an urban area or down the middle of a street in a small town may be restricted to 20 miles per hour or less.
• Currently in the United States, there are conventional speed passenger trains (up to 79 mph), and there are higher speed trains which operate on Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor between Washington, D.C., New York City, and Boston. On a small section of track between New York and Boston, Amtrak’s Acela trains operate at speeds up to 150 mph, but just briefly. Most of the time trains on Amtrak’s Northeast Corridor operate at speeds of less than 100 mph.
• The new high speed trains which the Obama Administration is hoping to put into place in coming years will operate at average speeds up to 150 mph, but many of these trains will first operate at speeds of 90 mph to 110 mph. The difference between the proposed high speed trains and advanced conventional passenger trains is current conventi0nal trains share tracks with slower and longer freight trains (which in the United States are not called “cargo” or “goods” trains, but freight trains). The proposed high speed trains will have dedicated tracks, and, in some instances dedicated rights of way (the entire track structure) for exclusive use. This is a safety issue, because all trains, whether short commuter trains or longer intercity trains, cannot “stop on a dime,” but take yards and yards of tracks to stop. Longer, heavier freight trains often take even longer to stop, sometimes measured in miles.
• The international standard for high speed passenger trains is 150 mph or faster, sometimes up to 250 mph. There are no trains in the United States or Canada which operate at these speeds.
• If you have any questions about proper phraseology when writing about passenger trains, please do not hesitate to contact URPA at the contact information on this web site. We will be delighted to assist you to write clearer, and more factual stories about passenger trains.

Amtrak often seems to ignore its original mission of being a national intercity passenger rail system, in favor of a concentration on the Northeast Corridor and other short distance corridors. Under a federalist system, taxpayers in Nebraska and Oklahoma have every right to expect passenger trains owned and operated by the federal government to be as statistically prevelant in their states as taxpayers do in the Northeast.

“Amtrak shall operate a national rail passenger transportation system which ties together existing and emergent regional rail passenger service and other intermodal passenger service.” — United States Code, Title 49, Subtitle V, Part C, Chapter 247, Section 24701.

While a number of states pay large annual subsidies for passenger rail service to Amtrak, New York State (Where Amtrak Interim President and CEO Joseph Boardman was head of the state Department of Transportation before moving to the federal government.), the beneficiary of dozens of daily trains on the Northeast Corridor, the operation of 20 long distance and short distance trains, and 22 Emprire Service daily short distance/commuter trains (with only a 35% load factor), only pays for one of those routes, the Adirondack between New York City and Montreal via Saratoga Springs. Pennsylvania, however, operates 28 daily Keystone Service trains between New York City and Philadelphia/Harrisburg and subsidizes each train. California operates dozens of corrdior and commuter trains through its Pacific Surfliner, San Joaquin, Capitol Corridor services, and pays to subsidize each train. Other states such as Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Washington State, Oregon, North Carolina, and Virginia all pay for subsidized trains. Other states pay, too, while New York receives mostly free service.

This brings us to “the vision thing” as the first President George H.W. Bush used to say at the end of the 1980s.

As it stands today, Amtrak and its management lack vision. Amtrak may corporately lust after the pot of money which is being thrown at the development of high speed rail, but it really has not proven itself worthy of the privilege of directing the spending of that money.

Here is what Andrew Selden has to say as a vision for the immediate and long-term future of Amtrak.

A. Amtrak must become relevant.

Its contribution to national mobility today does not justify its cost. The national network is too small – it goes to too few places and interconnects too few city pairs (e.g., it doesn’t go to Las Vegas, Nevada or Columbus, Ohio, and one cannot get from Dallas to Denver or Dallas to Orlando). Even in what its own supporters characterize as its strongest market, the Northeast Corridor, its market share of intercity trips is less than 1%, at a public cost of about three-quarters of a billion dollars a year. Even in the NEC, a complete shut-down would be all but imperceptible as all of its customers (except in the New York-Philadelphia sub-market) could be easily absorbed into existing road and airway capacity.

B. Amtrak must grow.

No business, or social service, succeeds by stagnating. Amtrak’s share of the national intercity travel business has shrunk steadily for three decades. Its carrying capacity has shrunk steadily for two decades. The newest Superliner rail car is more than 10 years old and the average age of the intercity fleet is far older than the cars Amtrak inherited from the private railroads in 1971. At the same time, Boeing builds a new 737 airliner every day, and Airbus builds a new A320 every day. Southwest Airlines adds a dozen or more new aircraft to its fleet every year. Amtrak could not absorb real growth if it were to occur, except in regional corridor markets where even a doubling of transactions would not raise it to a 2% market share.

C. Amtrak must change its vision.

Amtrak views itself as a social service, like a transit agency or a sewer authority, and thus as a ward of government. It measures its performance by the metrics of a public agency, in simple transaction volume. The only function at which it truly excels is extracting money from public sector sponsors. This vision condemns Amtrak to always being irrelevant to the needs of the traveling public. Amtrak must adopt a vision of sustained growth, relevance and minimized dependence upon public agency financing in favor of dependency upon customer selection, of mode and route. Amtrak must position its services and its operational network such that it can become the mode of consumer preference for most intercity travel.

D. Amtrak needs a new business model.

Amtrak has pursued the same business model for its entire history, one based upon the supply-driven model of point-to-point short corridors between urban city-pairs, based on the High Speed Ground Transportation Act of 1966. That model has produced the current state of Amtrak: irrelevancy to the traveling public and financial catastrophe. The model causes the results, the results do not occur despite the model. The new business model must be based on consumer demand, in applications that can be financially remunerative. The new model must focus on the metrics of output, not merely transaction volume, and growth, market share, and maximal return (in output and revenue) on invested capital. The model must create volume and efficiencies of scale on a national basis, by developing a true national network of regional and interregional routes that allow use of rail for most intercity travel demand, and inherently grow with demand and population growth. Capacity must be re-allocated to match consumer demand, and must grow to anticipate and accommodate growth in demand.