This Week At Amtrak 2007-05-14
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Volume 4 Number 20
- Let’s continue our conversation about ways Amtrak can help itself – using current assets – to generate more revenue than expenses, widen its route matrix to provide a more appealing transportation product for its passengers, and lessen its long standing dependence on annual doses of free federal monies.The rules of this exercise are simple: Expand travel offerings by altering existing routes, terminals, and destinations without creating a need for many new stations (very expensive), or pioneering complete new routes (while desirable, new routes are an exercise for another time with another set of criteria and a lot of money), or creating a need for new equipment. A large part of this exercise consists of putting existing equipment to better use, or bringing warehoused equipment out of storage to become a product asset versus a stagnant asset.
Looking at Amtrak’s route map, we see a lot of long trunk lines, with relatively few hub opportunities. Each current Amtrak route seems designed for travelers going in only one direction, with little thought that someone may independently want to get there from here, beyond where Amtrak believes they should travel.
Dallas and Houston, Texas are a prime example. Amtrak serves both cities, which are the two largest cities in Texas. While Amtrak does offer a convoluted Thruway bus/train connection between the two cities, the choice is not only unappealing, but clumsy, and involves a 15 hour overnight layover in Longview, Texas.
Essentially, to get from Dallas to Houston by train, one must travel 315 miles from Dallas, at 12:20 P.M., to San Antonio on the Texas Eagle, arriving at San Antonio at 10:35 P.M. On Tuesday, Friday, and Sunday mornings (since the Sunset Limited is only operated tri-weekly) our Dallas to Houston traveler boards the Sunset in San Antonio at 1 A.M. and continues on an additional 210 miles to Houston, arriving at 5:45 A.M. Our traveler has gone 525 miles during a period of almost 17 and a half hours. Driving the route, according to the American Automobile Association, would take a few minutes less than four hours, and be a distance of 238 miles. Only the most fanatical rail fan would consider a trip such as this instead of finding an easier and more productive way to travel.
One of the greatest challenges for reforming Amtrak’s corporate thinking is to eliminate the urge to create new long lines, and, instead start connecting the existing lines at more places.
The Northeast Corridor is another prime example of this thinking. Here’s a startling statement: the Northeast is actually under-served by Amtrak. The bulk of Amtrak’s northeast service goes only north and south, with little consideration for east and west (although, granted, it’s tough to go east when you’re living in an Atlantic Ocean port city). The same holds true in the Northeast as it does for much of the rest of the country for Amtrak: a passenger railroad which boasts over 500 destinations, and you often “can’t get there from here” seems to be the norm.
The Sunset Limited filled a great part of Amtrak’s historic gap between New Orleans and Florida from 1993 until the fateful day in 2005 Hurricane Katrina roared ashore and devastated everything in its wake. The hardy souls of the Gulf Coast and immediate surrounding areas have worked hard in these intervening months rebuilding their homes and businesses. CSX, Norfolk Southern, and Canadian National railroads raced against the clock to restore their infrastructures to help in the rebuilding of the region. An amazing amount of work was completed as railroads played their historic role as the primary movers of a nation when crisis arose. But, wait, one railroad, which could play a vital role in helping reshape the travel market to this region has been absent without leave. Yes, Amtrak has given the Gulf Coast a cold shoulder and refused to restore the Sunset Limited to its route east of New Orleans, citing a number of “the dog ate my homework” reasons for not participating in this process. Private enterprise and charitable organizations rolled up their sleeves and made things happen on the Gulf Coast. Amtrak stole quietly away into the night. Have these people no shame?
Amtrak apologists and cultists are the first to whine about Amtrak’s skeletal national system. They want more. There should be more, but the skewed traditional thinking that Amtrak “is doing the best it can under the circumstances” is wrong. Also, even worse, “just give Amtrak more money and everything will be fine,” is such a false mantra the phrase should be banned from the national lexicon. Amtrak doesn’t need more money, it needs more vision and “can do” spirit to help itself.
Despite uninformed opinion to the contrary, the best steward and leader Amtrak ever had was the late Graham Claytor in the 1980s and early 1990s. Under Mr. Claytor, Amtrak operated more trains to more places at more times than any other period in Amtrak’s history. More new equipment came online and more routes were expanded than ever before, or since then.
Since his retirement, every succeeding Amtrak president (Except the present one, Alexander Kummant) has found a need to shorten or eliminate trains, close stations, downgrade services, or need more free federal monies and state monies.
Amtrak’s current leadership seems to be breaking free from the destructive planning shackles of the past. There is a need for passenger trains across America, but more than ones going short distances in and out of major cities.
- Look first at the original Seaboard Air Line Railroad route through Florida, that in 2005 then-president David Gunn abandoned north of Winter Haven in favor of Thruway bus connections to the current route of the Silver Meteor and Silver Star. This historic route, which goes south from Jacksonville to Waldo (Gainesville), Ocala, Wildwood, Dade City, Winter Haven, Sebring, Okeechobee, West Palm Beach, Fort Lauderdale, and into Miami, travels through some of the fastest growing areas of Central Florida. The Ocala/Gainesville and immediate surrounding counties host a population of over 700,000, plus the tens of thousands of students of the University of Florida. This is also the rail line the State of Florida is kicking in money to CSX to upgrade to handle increased freight traffic in quickly coming years when the old Atlantic Coast Line route through Orlando is sold and turned into a mostly passenger line to create an exciting new regional commuter rail system in Central Florida. Travel time on this Jacksonville – Miami route is less than eight hours. Ideally, a set of daytime passenger train equipment should run 14 to 15 hours a day to receive full value from its use.Create a new/restored/different route in Florida from Miami to Ocala to Jacksonville to Columbia, South Carolina via Savannah, also on the old Seaboard Air Line route. Why this way, and not straight up the CSX I-95 corridor to Florence, South Carolina, which would also fit the time criteria (and train and engine crew change point, too)?
The needs of CSX must be taken into account along with the viability of marketing any route. The CSX I-95 corridor route through Florence is one of the busiest pieces of railroad in the country. By creating a route that only uses that railroad for 148 route miles, it creates a much less demanding scenario on the CSX infrastructure. Just as important, Columbia, South Carolina, that state’s capital city, has been grossly under served for passenger business since the beginning of Amtrak in 1971. The metro area population of Columbia is 576,000, and project to grow over 7% annually for the next five years.Since this train would be a run of only less than 14 hours, the ideal consist would be one locomotive, one baggage car, one premium coach, one food service car, and three to five coaches, depending on demand. This would be an inexpensive train to operate in terms of crew and equipment, since only two trainsets would be required, both maintained in Miami, the current Florida maintenance base. Columbia, like today’s Savannah which has a small turn maintenance and cleaning base for today’s Palmetto, would need these minimal services.
In 1993, before the dreaded days of the common consist in Florida and reduced train capacity, the Central Florida stations did well.
Statistics for passengers entraining and detraining at the stations are:
Dade City 4,911 Wildwood 7,679 Ocala 22,624 Waldo 15,723 Other stations served by this route and also the routes of the Silver Meteor and Silver Star included:
Jacksonville 121,352 (includes passengers from the Sunset Limited) Winter Haven 51,435 Sebring 17,228 Okeechobee 3,650 West Palm Beach 56,583 Delray Beach 11,579 Deerfield Beach 29,314 Fort Lauderdale 51,306 Hollywood 31,431 Miami 96,843 Today, those same stations, with a combination of only the Silver Meteor and Silver Star from Winter Haven, south (plus Jacksonville to the North) have these ridership figures:
Jacksonville 54,370 (No Sunset Limiteds operated in 2006) Winter Haven 17,882 Sebring 13,939 Okeechobee 2,858 West Palm Beach 40,304 Delray Beach 6,822 Deerfield Beach 19,997 Fort Lauderdale 34,413 Hollywood 26,156 Miami 61,158 Here are the differences between FY 1993 and FY 2006 for those same stations:
Jacksonville -66982 -55.2% † Winter Haven -33553 -65.2% Sebring -3289 -19.1% Okeechobee -792 -21.7% West Palm Beach -16279 -28.8% Delray Beach -4757 -41.1% Deerfield Beach -9317 -31.8% Fort Lauderdale -16893 -32.9% Hollywood -5275 -16.8% Miami -35685 -36.8% † Includes loss of Sunset Limited passengers; data not available to break out Sunset counts.
Total passenger loss measuring FY 1993 versus FY 2006: 192,822 passengers just from the state of Florida – a 41% decrease.
These are passengers Amtrak has willingly abandoned and said it is not interested in their patronage or revenue. The number of passengers lost only on this route is comparable to today’s passenger count for the entire route of the Capitol Limited between Washington, D.C. and Chicago.
We are contemplating re-establishing a route of 643 miles, of which 452 of those route miles are currently in use for the Silver Meteor and Silver Star, and the stations on the remaining 191 miles of former trackage through Ocala are all still in operation for Thruway bus connections. Therefore, this proposed service would require no new stations or station personnel because the trains would operate during daylight hours.
Estimated operating costs for this train (locomotives, cars, maintenance, crews, etc.) are $11,265,360. Estimated passenger revenue for this train, based on revenue passenger mile income on a similar train, the Palmetto, average length of trip, load factors, and backing out possible Sunset Limited passenger counts in the figures above are $11,585,000, which would put the train at breakeven or into a small profit. Further benefit from this train would include the lowering of infrastructure expenses for the Silver Meteor and Silver Star (sharing of station and maintenance facility costs), plus the expansion of offerings of more travel times on the joint portions of the route, and the opening up of South Carolina stations to daylight travel times. Considering the normal jump in business when a second or third frequency is offered, and a larger travel matrix is created, it is not unreasonable to consider another $2 million in ticket revenues for all of the Florida trains as a result of the addition of this one route. Therefore, this route would contribute to lowering Amtrak’s annual assigned operating loss on the national system, provide more travel opportunities at better times for many formerly busy stations, and use all existing stations and existing surplus equipment.
- Take the same idea as above, but add another twist to it. It’s important to expand the route matrix, connecting various points on the overall route map that haven’t recently been connected, or connected before.Most people consider Florida to be a destination state, but often overlook the 12 million people who live in Florida, many of which have a desire to travel to many places up and down the Eastern Seaboard. Most travel planners look at states such as North Carolina and South Carolina and incorrectly presume most travelers to and from those states want to travel to northern destinations from there. The existence of the Palmetto and Carolinian routes confirm that suspicion. These trains connect New York City and the Northeast with the Carolinas. The needs of any other traffic are presumably met by the Silver Meteor and Silver Star.
In addition to the suggestion in the last issue of TWA to extend the Palmetto to Tampa, how about – again, using existing stations and maintenance bases used for other purposes – creating a new route which connects the busy area of North Carolina around the metropolitan Charlotte area with Columbia, South Carolina, Savannah, Jacksonville, the vacation hotspot of Orlando, and Tampa? This would be an all daylight run of about 14 hours.
Charlotte already has a turn maintenance and crew base for the Carolinian and Piedmont trains, so that problem is solved. CSX has good track that runs about 75 miles from Charlotte to Hamlet, North Carolina, a station stop on the route of the Silver Star. Following the logic of above, continue south down the former Seaboard line from Hamlet to Columbia, over to Savannah, travel the 148 route miles between Savannah and Jacksonville on the busy CSX main line, and then take the current route of the Silver Star from Jacksonville to Tampa, via Orlando. All but 75 miles of the route between Charlotte and Hamlet would be existing route miles of the Silver Star, and would all be run in daylight, which would provide a welcome additional frequency between expanding areas of the Carolinas with the tourism areas of Florida, plus all of Florida’s most densely populated areas outside of South Florida.This route would consist of 675 miles connecting six major metropolitan areas. The size and makeup of the train, and marketing and expense and revenue characteristics would be very similar to the scenario outlined above for the restored train via Ocala and Columbia. The only difference would be the need to establish a full maintenance base in Tampa (where, if the Palmetto is extended to this needed destination, turn maintenance would already be performed there, so upgrading to full maintenance would not be significant or expensive).
Again, the same variables come into account: the more frequencies on a route, the greater the multiplication factor for new passengers kicks in because of greater travel choices and more destinations.
By opening up the route of the Crescent with a direct connection to Florida’s best destinations via Charlotte and Columbia, a number of factors automatically come into play which drives higher passenger counts, creates a better route matrix, and more revenue opportunities at lower expenses.
- One last scenario for Florida (for now), that has been needed since the days of the loss of the Floridian. There has always been strong demand for a Chicago-Florida train. The best routes available, via Louisville or Atlanta are either unaccessible today or impractical because of lost trackage.
A reasonable substitute – which, again, uses all existing stations and only requires two extra sets of equipment – is extending the Capitol Limited to Tampa via Raleigh, Columbia, and Orlando.
This extension would require six sets of equipment (versus three for today’s Capitol Limited between Chicago and Washington), with no real alteration in the Capitol Limited schedule. A train would depart Chicago about 7 P.M. on a Monday night, and arrive in Orlando and Tampa on Wednesday morning well before noon. This would entail two nights of running in each direction, totaling about 38 hours for a run, not much more than the City of Miami or South Wind took via Birmingham or Louisville. The difference is those trains departed Chicago in the early morning hours, 12 hours before the Capitol would depart today.This new route made of two existing routes, which could be run with all Superliners, includes a host of major markets by combining the Capitol Limited and Silver Star routes, plus adds additional frequencies to the Star route, providing even greater opportunities, and requires no new stations or additional station personnel.
Tampa, again, serves as an ideal turn maintenance terminal. When the Sunset Limited finally returns to Florida, it could easily be naturally extended from Orlando to Tampa, joining the Capitol Limited at a Florida Superliner maintenance turn base.The economics for this extension are strong. Nine hundred and ninety-eight additional route miles are added to the Capitol’s running in each direction, but these miles are covered by only three additional trainsets (two additional sets would not provide sufficient turn time in Tampa if a train was remarkably late). The new, extended train would cost an estimated $23,300,000 a year to operate. It would have estimated revenues of $30,000,000, including the current Capitol and the extended portion. All of the equipment needed to add the three additional trainsets is currently in the Amtrak active pool of equipment.
An alternate suggestion is a long-sought URPA concept of extending the City of New Orleans from New Orleans to Orlando and Tampa. This would require two additional sets of Superliner equipment. To make the transformation complete, the City should be extended on the north end from Chicago to Detroit.
The extension of the Capitol Limited, because of the major metropolitan markets it serves on its present route, make this train a first choice to extend to Florida in front of the City of New Orleans, from a strictly marketing standpoint. In an ideal world, both trains should run into Florida, serving Orlando and Tampa, without question or hesitation.
- To summarize the impact of these three improvements in Florida service, Amtrak, without adding any new stations, or activating any equipment out of storage, can improve its bottom line by an estimated $10 to $15 million and serve a much higher number of national system passengers, making Amtrak a stronger company with a more robust route matrix and less dependent on annual doses of free federal monies. The three trains would mostly stay away from the busiest routes of CSX.
- One last proposal to put one of Amtrak’s most under-used assets to work, plus provide better use of Amtrak’s most scenic route east of Chicago.The Cardinal, operating between Chicago and New York City via Indianapolis, Cincinnati, and Washington is a disgrace in the manner in which it is run. Operating today only three days a week, it also consumes three full trainsets of low level equipment, including Viewliner sleeping cars. It travels to Indianapolis and Cincinnati at nocturnal times.It’s time for a complete revamp of this potential diamond in the rough.
First, make it a daily train, and extend the eastern terminus from New York City to Boston. On the eastern end on the NEC several things can quickly be accomplished.Instead of an eastbound departure from Chicago at 5:45 P.M., move that departure back to about 9 P.M. This would create a better marketing time at Cincinnati, run through all of the attractive mountain scenery in West Virginia and Virginia during daylight hours, and put the train into Washington, D.C. about 9:15 P.M. Remember, this is a train with Viewliner sleeping cars. Have the Cardinal replace today’s NEC regional train number 66, which operates from Newport News, Virginia to Boston.
Operate 66 from Newport News to Washington on its present schedule, arriving in Washington at 8:25 P.M. Attach 66 to the back of the Cardinal, and have the combined train follow the current schedule of train 66 to Boston, arriving in Boston at 7:52 A.M. This will recreate an overnight train with sleeping cars between Washington and Boston, eliminate duplicate running, crew, and other operating costs between Washington and New York City of the Cardinal, and extend the reach and desirability of the Cardinal to Boston without changing any station hours or adding other expenses. As suggested in the last issue of TWA, if the Silver Star is logically extended from New York City to Boston, this would place two trains with Viewliners into the same maintenance base for shared costs and needs.
The reverse schedule would put the Cardinal out of Boston on train number 67’s current schedule at 9:45 P.M., and into Washington at 7 A.M., again breaking away the Newport News section of the train and sending it on its way as a separate train. The ongoing Cardinal would again spend the day going through the scenic mountains of Virginia and West Virginia, into Cincinnati before midnight, and return to Chicago before 9 A.M.
By taking the Cardinal daily, the Hoosier State, the Cardinal’s companion train which operates between Chicago and Indianapolis on days the Cardinal does not run, could have a restrung schedule which would put it out of Chicago earlier in the afternoon, and run all the way to Cincinnati instead of Indianapolis before midnight. The return train would be an all daylight train, providing a second frequency schedule between Chicago and Cincinnati. This will only serve to increase traffic demand on both trains by providing more travel options through a second frequency on this part of the route.
The Cardinal carried only 95,100 passengers in FY 2006, based on tri-weekly service. That amounts to only 305 passengers per departure. Taking a train daily from tri-weekly does not dilute the present passenger base, but, instead makes it stronger because of the availability of more travel options. By making the Cardinal daily, the annual ridership would probably soar to at least 223,000 passengers (not counting the enhanced passenger base from the addition of passengers from train numbers 66 and 67, which is not made available).
Based on FY 2006 revenue of $5,552,700, new revenue projections would go to an estimated $13,000,000, if not higher. Expenses for the route would not increase at the same level as revenues because most base costs, such as station costs, would not increase. The additional train miles of 922 miles for the Washington-Chicago part of the trip for four additional days of operation, plus the costs of one additional trainset will not dramatically increase the expenses of the route. The loss of the costs of operating an entire train between Washington and Boston, train numbers 66 and 67, greatly reduce the expense of extending the Cardinal up the NEC. Making the Cardinal daily, replacing the current train numbers 66 and 67 with a train with sleeping cars and a diner, and restringing the schedule to make it more appealing to viewing mountain scenery in the daytime, plus adding a second frequency between Chicago and Indianapolis and Cincinnati make this proposal one which can again add to the company’s bottom line by creating more revenue than expenses.