This Week at Amtrak 2006-08-10
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Volume 3 Number 32
- A lingering question last week in TWA regarding the lack of passenger rail service east of New Orleans by the Sunset Limited still hangs in the air.Interestingly, in the meantime, one of Amtrak’s most prolific apologists, Trains Magazine, in the September 2006 issued published a story by longtime writer Bob Johnston bemoaning this very topic.
In his article, Mr. Johnston listed some weak arguments as to why the Sunset is not operating, including the lack of passenger stations due to hurricane damage (which Amtrak could easily replace with portable station trailers as it does elsewhere throughout the country when a current stations is unusable), the lack of qualified train and engine crews (perhaps the poorest excuse of all; it’s not that difficult to re-qualify operating crews over the single stretch of railroad between New Orleans and Pensacola, Florida which was damaged), and perhaps the least relevant excuse, the possibility (now dead and gone) that CSX may sell the railroad line between Mobile and New Orleans to the federal government so the railroad would not be running in the middle of the towns of Pascagoula, Gulfport, Biloxi, and a couple of other locations.
In other words, no real good reasons were provided, only apologetic observations.
While the argument can be made that local ridership to the Gulf Coast towns, such as Biloxi, Gulfport, Pascagoula, and Mobile was modest due to the fact that the Sunset’s last schedule serviced those destinations in the middle of the night, an even greater argument can be made of the importance of the overhead traffic on the Sunset between New Orleans and Florida, including Jacksonville, where the Sunset had considerable cross-platform business with the north/south Florida service trains, the Silver Meteor and Silver Star, plus considerable ridership into Orlando, the world’s largest single family vacation destination.
The loss of the Sunset Limited east of New Orleans not only leaves a gaping hole in Amtrak’s route system, but, by applying the late Dr. Adrian Herzog’s matrix theory, ends up costing Amtrak much more in revenues and passenger demand than it is saving by not running the train. Plus, again, it must be said: Amtrak received a large amount of free federal funding to operate the Sunset Limited east of New Orleans this budget year. That train is bought and paid for. Why isn’t it running?
- The Washington Post noted in its editions of Saturday, August 5th airline shuttle fares between Washington’s Reagan National Airport and New York City’s LaGuardia Airport may now top $600 roundtrip. URPA Vice President of Law and Policy Andrew Selden offers this view on the subject and how the pricing development affects Amtrak.
By Andrew Selden
The Washington Post article from Saturday, August 5th about the recent sharp escalation in Northeast Corridor air shuttle prices should put to bed once and for all any notion that air and rail are serious cross-modal competitors.
The article reports that walk-up, unrestricted roundtrip fares in the New York – Washington, D.C. market have risen 30% since last summer to as much as $618, with average fares (on US Airways) at around $270 (diluted by advance purchase discount fares of $160). The prices reflect substantial growth in demand, in one of the highest demand markets in the entire country, and fuel cost increases.
Amtrak Acela walk-up fares are $300 to $350.
Greyhound bus fare is $60, and the deeply discounted ethnic busses are $35.
The article by Washington Post Staff Writer Del Quentin Wilbur states – without any authority cited – the air carriers “… face battles with … Amtrak and bus companies.”
But there is in fact NO cross-elasticity of demand between air and rail, even in this 221 mile market, because if there were, a 30% increase in prices in one mode, all else being equal, would deflect a significant proportion of customers from the one to the other. Plainly, that has not happened, because if it had, Amtrak would be overflowing with new customers looking to get to the other end point for $300 (walk-up on Acela) instead of $600 (walk-up on US Airways or Delta), or $84 (advance purchase on Amtrak Regionals) instead of $160 (advance purchase on the airlines). That is simply not happening. Three hundred-seat Acelas, like the Metroliners that preceded them, are simply not full, outside of the 90-mile Philadelphia – New York City segment. New business is not flowing to Amtrak from the airlines after sharp air price increases.
There is, therefore, no appreciable cross-elasticity between these modes. Travelers who want to fly continue to fly; travelers who prefer rail are taking the train. The two groups are like coffee drinkers at Starbucks and coffee drinkers at Dunkin’ Donuts – parallel universes that don’t really intersect, even though both are populated by heavy coffee-drinkers.
- TWA has been featuring essays by URPA Vice President William Lindley on an example of how the passenger rail matrix theory developed by the late Dr. Adrian Herzog can be implemented to the advantage of improved passenger service in the Southeast, particularly focusing on North Carolina.Mr. Lindley, of Scottsdale, Arizona, writes this week further on the subject.
Improving Passenger Train Travel in the Southeast – Part III
By William Lindley
If you were a politician, a civic leader, or a transportation planner, how would you decide where public money should be put – on what looks good, on what works good, on what solves real needs, or what helps the largest number of people?
As more regions look to trains as another ingredient in the transportation mix, rail passenger proponents need to help politicians and planners make good decisions. Unfortunately, finding helpful data is difficult.
I have done some research this week; it seems every transportation project differs in the use of reporting formats, treatment of past-versus-present dollars, and assignment of costs. This makes comparisons difficult; but I have attempted to normalize these figures from the various agencies and news reports. Costs here for our example ignore revenues from the fare box. And for this discussion, let’s assume the “average” passenger rides half the length of the corridor.
New Mexico’s new Rail Runner commuter rail now operates across 54 miles of track, at a capital cost of $135 million, an annual operating cost of $10 million, carrying 5,000 weekday passengers. Note that the Albuquerque area was most fortunate to have well-maintained, lightly-used right-of-way that was more easily retrofitted than in most urban areas; thus the unusually low capital cost.
Orlando’s commuter rail will operate 61 miles, at a capital cost of $491 million, and estimated weekday ridership of 9,000 passengers.
The Charlotte, North Carolina North Corridor commuter rail will operate a 30 mile system, with $230 million capital and $13 million annual operating costs, and about 7,000 weekday passengers.
Charlotte’s South Corridor light rail system will have 10 route miles, $427 million of capital costs, $20 million in annual operating costs, and 9,000 daily passengers.
For the Piedmont, operated by Amtrak for the State of North Carolina, capital costs are not available, but the state pays Amtrak about $3 million annually for 150 daily passengers on a 173 mile corridor.
From these, we can compute annual passenger-miles. This can then be divided into the annual operating cost; and similarly for the capital cost (which is annualized over 20 years for this example). On this basis, we get per passenger-mile capital and operating costs respectively of:
Service Capital Costs
per mileOperating Costs
per mileNM Rail Runner: $0.19 $0.28 Orlando commuter rail: $0.34 $0.28 Charlotte, NC South light rail: $1.30 $1.22 Charlotte, NC North commuter rail: $0.42 $0.47 Amtrak and NC DOT Piedmont: n/a $0.63 Note that the light rail project costs more than twice as much per passenger-mile, but operates all day, every day; light rail has a more direct impact on a local economy and on urban form than commuter or intercity rail. The collateral return on investment can be therefore much higher.
Also note that a capital cost of a couple hundred million dollars for a train line of 10 to 60 miles easily compares with the same price for a single major highway interchange.
So now, as a North Carolina politician, civic leader, or transportation planner, when you look at passenger trains: which project would you spend your time and energy supporting? The 47 cent train that carries many thousands of people (i.e., voters) every day, or the 63 cent one that carries about a hundred and fifty passengers every day?
- The big news here in Florida last week was the announcement of the pending agreement between the State of Florida and CSX to create a new commuter rail system in Central Florida, and expand southward the existing Tri-Rail commuter rail system in South Florida.As Mr. Lindley noted in his essay above, CSX is receiving $491 million in funds for the purchase of 61 miles of the former Atlantic Coast Line Railroad main line between Deland, Florida and Poinciana, Florida, just south of Orlando. The line will serve the exploding population of Central Florida in and around Orlando.
Amtrak will benefit from this development by having a track clear of freight trains during the day, and additional station facilities in high population areas in Central Florida, should it choose to serve additional stations with the Silver Meteor and Silver Star, and hopefully, the restored Sunset Limited.
Many passenger rail proponents don’t understand why and how this deal (and, according to the Miami Herald, a possible doubling of South Florida Tri-Rail by the possible acquisition of the Florida East Coast Railway’s main line south of West Palm Beach into Miami in addition to the announced southward expansion of the existing Tri-Rail line on former CSX tracks) came to being, after it has been discussed, debated, and studied for over 20 years.
The answer is simple. Finally, all of the details came into place where CSX has no losses from the deal, and in fact benefits; commuter rail will serve as an inexpensive alternative (not a replacement) for growing traffic congestion as a main artery Interstate highway is about to be rebuilt, the same way it did in the infancy of Tri-Rail; and Amtrak will have less competition for track time and space.
CSX has a number of benefits that made this deal happen, including the development of a new intermodal facility in Winter Haven, to the southwest of Orlando. The Winter Haven facility will replace much of what goes on at a smaller, older, and similar facility just south of Orlando. CSX also has near parallel lines in Florida’s peninsular, the old Seaboard Air Line and the old Atlantic Coast Line main lines. Both lines have been maintained to high standards due to Florida’s heavy freight demands. Most of the existing freight traffic in and out of Florida on CSX can move from the old Atlantic Coast Line route through Orlando to the old Seaboard route through Ocala. So, CSX has no loss for availability of freight service, and, part of the money the state is providing CSX will go specifically to upgrade the old SAL line with more sidings, the removal of automobile and truck grade crossings, and better signaling. Amtrak abandoned passenger rail service on the old SAL three years ago when the Palmetto was shortened from Miami to Savannah, Georgia for its southern terminus. The stations on the SAL line are now partially served by Amtrak Thruway bus connections meeting trains on the old ACL route.
This deal proves everyone can benefit when all parties agree everyone will win, rational discussions are held, and no one feels their property has been confiscated for use by others. This deal, blessed and encouraged by outgoing two-term Governor Jeb Bush, who was roundly and unfairly criticized for killing the Florida Overland Xpress stand-alone rail system potential disaster when he first took office eight years ago, demonstrates that good rail projects can be appealing to politicians, the public, and private enterprise.
The Florida deal, when completed, will become a model for other responsible projects throughout the country.
- As usual, what’s old is new, again. Boston.Com, reporting a story by the Associated Press, says the State of Vermont is looking into running brand new rail diesel cars in place of conventional Amtrak trains, citing low passenger demand for the service. The move is projected to save $4.25 million in operating costs over three years.Now called DMUs (diesel multiple units), the new trains would be an Amtrak demonstration project, to see if feeder lines and short regional trains could be operated more efficiently than with full size trains. This same concept was popular with the private passenger railroads during all of the diesel era in the 20th Century. RDC service, as it was known, was also popular in Canada, and was used by VIA Rail Canada.
The proposal calls for a combination of Amtrak and Federal Railroad Administration funds to be used to purchase the equipment and establish maintenance facilities, with Vermont repaying the costs over a 20 year period.
This is an excellent example of innovation for saving operating costs, marrying capacity to demand, and exploring the use of new equipment.
